Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0721 price level in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting to move down from zero, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by only 10 points, after which the pressure on the euro eased. The fact that the eurozone has returned to a disinflationary scenario weakens the euro's position, increasing the chances of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank – if not at this month's meeting, then definitely at the beginning of the fall.

As for the short-term outlook, the EUR/USD may react to the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as there are simply no important fundamental statistics today. Further hints at maintaining high interest rates will strengthen the dollar and decline risky assets, including the euro. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios Nos. 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros upon reaching the price of around 1.0756 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to the level of 1.0800. At 1.0800, I will exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. The upward movement of the euro today can be expected only after very dovish comments from Powell. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0709 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0756 and 1.0800.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching 1.0709 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0672. I plan to exit the market and immediately buy euros in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in case of strong statistics from the US. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0756, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0709 and 1.0672.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must carefully decide about market entry. Before releasing important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You must set stop-loss orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.