Analysis of trades and trading tips for the European currency

The test of the price at 1.0720 in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had dropped significantly below the zero mark, so I refrained from selling the euro. I didn't wait for other entry points into the market. Considering that there is a lot of economic data scheduled for the second half of the day, everything can change at any moment. It all starts with the US Consumer Confidence Index data, which is forecasted to decline, followed by data on the Housing Price Index and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. The day will conclude with speeches from FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Lisa D. Cook. Statements from policymakers could strengthen the dollar's position, along with strong US economic data, increasing pressure on the pair and potentially leading to a return to yesterday's levels. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0727 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.0765. At the point of 1.0765, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be expected today after very weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0705, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward in the market. Expect a rise towards the opposite levels of 1.0727 and 1.0765.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.0705 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0680, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0727, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward in the market. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0705 and 1.0680.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can place Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can place Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not using money management and are trading with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.