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11.04.2025 06:04 AM
What to Pay Attention to on April 11? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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A relatively large number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but none are expected to impact the market. Of course, we may see short-term reactions to individual reports, but it is widely understood that the market continues to be driven by Trump. His actions will determine how the U.S. dollar behaves on the last trading day of the week. And the dollar, in turn, influences all other currencies. The reports highlight the UK's GDP and industrial production data, the U.S. PCE index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There is no point in discussing fundamental developments other than Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline may continue for an indefinite period. We advise traders to pay close attention to statements made by top officials from major countries and alliances regarding tariffs. Trump has said that any response to his actions aimed at "eliminating unfairness" will be met with severe retaliation through new sanctions and tariffs.

At the same time, yesterday, the U.S. president introduced a 90-day grace period for all countries except China, during which a unified 10% tariff on imports will apply. According to Trump, this time is meant to be used for negotiating trade deals. However, we must point out that the chances of reaching agreements with the EU or China are extremely low. Tariffs against China continue to rise, and there is no reason to expect Beijing to back down.

General Conclusions:

On the week's final trading day, both currency pairs (EUR/USD and GBP/USD) could move in either direction. The market remains in panic and chaos, with no room for logical price movement. News related to the trade war emerges every few hours, and it is impossible to predict its appearance or forecast Trump's next steps.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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