empty
03.03.2025 02:40 PM
Oil: key drivers and market outlook for this week

This image is no longer relevant

In the coming days, volatility in the oil and gas markets may increase significantly, especially in light of expected economic data and potential statements from key policymakers. The focus should now be on support and resistance levels as the market is at a critical decision point.

Brent crude oil futures continue to consolidate within a tight range of $72–73.75 per barrel. Support at $70-70.7 remains key, preventing further declines, while the descending resistance level limits price action from the top. In these conditions, traders must navigate through a mix of conflicting factors.

This image is no longer relevant

A break below $70 could intensify bearish sentiment and lead to a test of $68 and lower. On the upside, the next target is $75, which would open the way to $78.

Fundamental drivers: positive factors and risks

Assessing the geopolitical situation remains a complex task. The likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict appears to be delayed based on recent signals. This is a positive factor for the oil market, as continued tensions support a risk premium in prices.

Encouraging news has come from Asia: China's manufacturing PMI for February came in well above expectations. This reinforces hopes for stable demand from the world's largest energy importer.

However, the global economic outlook remains threatened by the possible resumption of trade wars initiated by Donald Trump. Such a scenario could slow global GDP growth, putting pressure on oil demand.

Sanctions against Iran and Russia have not yet had a significant impact on supply volumes to Asia. However, potential increases in restrictions on either country's shadow fleet could intensify competition for available vessels, which could impact supply logistics.

Gas: growth in question

Natural gas futures are in a bull market, but the current move is accompanied by a correction, the depth of which is difficult to gauge. Key levels:

  • Resistance: $3.887 – the zone of the descending trendline
  • Support: $3.567 – a potential level where demand could pick up

A break above the resistance level could resume the bullish trend, while a drop below the support level would open the path to $3.45 and lower.

This week's top events

  • March 4: US oil inventories data from API.
  • March 5: EIA statistics, the start of China's National People's Congress.
  • March 7: US labor market data, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Baker Hughes rig count.
Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Market Is Losing Buyers

If you harm your relationship with your neighbors, don't expect them to offer you help. Donald Trump's tariffs and subsequent coercive negotiations have diminished the willingness of other countries

Marek Petkovich 09:49 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Changes in the U.S. Tax System May Exert Localized Pressure on Market Demand (there is a likelihood of a decline in #SPX and gold prices)

The chaos and instability caused by Donald Trump, both in the U.S. and around the world, have become a regular occurrence. However, they still contribute to significant market volatility

Pati Gani 09:49 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 22: A New Blow to the Dollar: "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar has been falling steadily for over a week—something that hasn't happened in over a month. However, every

Paolo Greco 08:10 2025-05-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 22: The Market Once Again Responds Clearly to Trump

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to move north on Wednesday, even though, at first glance, there appeared to be no apparent reason for it. Yes, the inflation report—the only release

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-22 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 22? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are several important macroeconomic reports scheduled for release on Thursday. Business activity indexes for May's services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Bank of England to Slow Down the Pace of Policy Easing

The Bank of England recently cut interest rates for the second time in 2025, justifying its decision with slowing inflation and steady movement toward the target level. But no sooner

Chin Zhao 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Dollar Sawed Off the Branch It Was Sitting On

Can the euro be considered a strong currency? I have significant doubts about that. An independent group of economic advisors to Friedrich Merz forecasts that the German economy will enter

Marek Petkovich 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Yen Goes on a Buyer Strike

A collapse in confidence in the U.S. dollar, rumors of coordinated currency intervention, and capital repatriation to Japan are driving USD/JPY back into a downtrend. The music playing

Marek Petkovich 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Continued Weakness in the U.S. Dollar

The four-week-long southern impulse we saw in EUR/USD has fully faded. Last week, sellers pushed the pair to a monthly low at 1.1066, but then seemed to "fear their

Irina Manzenko 18:59 2025-05-21 UTC+2

High Inflation Supports the Pound. GBP/USD Outlook

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.6% to 3.5% in April, surprising the market, which had expected an increase to 3.3%. The core CPI also exceeded forecasts

Kuvat Raharjo 18:47 2025-05-21 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.