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26.02.2020 08:03 AM
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 26. COT reports indicate an increase in long positions on the pound. Bulls aim for resistance 1.3006
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To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound continued to strengthen its position against the US dollar amid the expectation of stimulus measures from the Treasury, which will be aimed at supporting the UK economy after Brexit. The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 18 also indicate a further strengthening of the pound, where there was an increase in long nonprofit positions from 65,000 to 72,784, while short nonprofit positions continued to decline and amounted to 43,526 against the level of 43,922 a week earlier. As a result of this, the non-profit net position also rose to a level of 29,258 from 21,245, which indicates bullish market sentiment in the medium term. Given that important fundamental data on the UK economy are not published today, the market will continue to focus on news on trade negotiations with the EU and fiscal measures. In the first half of the day, buyers of the pound need to regain the resistance of 1.3006, consolidating on which will continue the upward trend and lead to the renewal of the highs 1.3036 and 1.3066, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pound persists, then only the formation of a false breakout at a low of 1.2970 with a test of moving averages will be a signal to open long positions of the pound. If this region is broken, it is best to count on purchases on a rebound from a low of 1.2930, where the lower boundary of the current ascending channel also passes.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound sellers are in no hurry to return to the market, however, if the pair falls to the level of 1.3006 at the Asian session, it could lead to a further downward correction in the first half of the day. An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above this range will also be a signal to open short positions in order to return GBP/USD to the support area of 1.2970. However, even a breakthrough of this range with an update of the low of 1.2930, where the lower boundary of the upward price channel also occurs, will not lead to a reversal of the upward trend, but only allow large buyers to enter the market at more favorable prices. In the scenario of a breakthrough and a pound growth above the resistance of 1.3006 in the morning, it is best to return to short positions after updating the high at 1.3036, confirming divergence on the MACD indicator, or sell GBP/USD for a rebound from resistance 1.3066.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which saves the likelihood of the pound's continued growth.

Bollinger bands

If the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2960. Growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.3025.

This image is no longer relevant

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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