empty
24.04.2025 09:38 AM
The Markets Have Likely Already Passed the Bottom of Their Decline (there is a chance of continued decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

While markets remain focused on trade wars, particularly between the U.S. and China, incoming economic data indicate persistent structural problems in the advanced economies of Europe and the United States.

Markets enthusiastically reacted with a two-day rally following comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who expressed hope for easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and assurances from Donald Trump that he had no plans to remove Jerome Powell from his post as Federal Reserve Chair. Now, all attention is shifting to key economic reports, which are pointing to a further plunge of the European economy into a state of depression and local challenges in the U.S.

Starting with Europe, the PMI reports for manufacturing and services in leading eurozone countries—France and Germany—as well as the composite reading for the eurozone all signal a continued slowdown. This confirms the entrenched negative trend for continental Europe, which can no longer be described merely as a "recession" but as a full-fledged depression. European elites are attempting to counter this through a strategy of military-industrial mobilization.

Even though the United Kingdom is outside the EU, it is also experiencing serious economic difficulties, as recent PMI data confirm.

What about the U.S.?

The situation there has improved somewhat. The Services PMI for April declined to 51.4 from 54.4 (the forecast was 52.8). While this is a slowdown, it's not yet catastrophic—the indicator remains above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. In manufacturing, the PMI rose slightly to 50.7 from 50.2, avoiding the expected drop to 49.0.

The U.S. housing market also remains relatively stable. New home sales in March increased to 724,000 compared to 674,000 previously, beating the forecast of 684,000.

Overall, the data from Europe and the U.S. show a relatively stronger position for the American economy. However, it's worth noting that the reports still don't fully reflect the impact of Trump's tariff wars, especially against China.

While investors try to focus on macroeconomic indicators, trade tensions remain the central narrative and will continue to dominate investor decision-making.

Looking at the broader picture of U.S.-China rivalry, it seems likely that the world's two largest economies will eventually have to compromise. Unless something extreme happens—like another unexpected move by Trump to pressure China with new sanctions—markets may already have passed their bottom and could begin to recover.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day:

EUR/USD

The pair has recently surged on the back of dollar weakness, fueled by recession fears and speculation about Powell's potential removal. However, if the dollar stabilizes and the interest rate spread between the ECB and the Fed shifts against the euro, a renewed decline in EUR/USD is possible. A drop below 1.1310 would open the way toward 1.1200. A suitable sell level could be around 1.1295.

GBP/USD

The situation is similar to EUR/USD. The pound has mirrored the euro's movement. A decline below 1.3245 could push the pair toward 1.3140. A suitable sell level could be around 1.3230.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

100 Days of Trump's Presidency

While the dollar prepares for key economic data that could determine the Federal Reserve's next course of action, Donald Trump reflected on his first 100 days as President

Jakub Novak 13:31 2025-04-30 UTC+2

USD/CAD: The Pair Consolidates Under Pressure

USD/CAD is showing sideways movement, with spot prices currently trading around the 1.3840 level. The decline in crude oil prices to a three-week low, amid concerns that a full-scale trade

Irina Yanina 13:26 2025-04-30 UTC+2

Canadian Dollar Preparing for a Breakout

Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.4% month-over-month in February but rebounded in March with a strong increase of 0.7%. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales declined to 4.7%

Kuvat Raharjo 13:09 2025-04-30 UTC+2

Stable Inflation to Support the Australian Dollar

Inflation in Australia remained steady at 2.4% year-over-year in Q1, defying expectations of a slight slowdown to 2.2%. The quarterly increase of 0.9% also exceeded forecasts, while core inflation slowed

Kuvat Raharjo 13:03 2025-04-30 UTC+2

U.S. GDP and PCE Data Unlikely to Drastically Shift Market Conditions (Possible Resumption of #NDX and #SPX Growth)

Markets are already fatigued by the chaos unfolding in Donald Trump's mind and among his followers. Everything remains extremely unclear, so market participants are now fully focused on today's important

Pati Gani 09:48 2025-04-30 UTC+2

The Market Hears What It Wants to Hear

How far will greed carry the crowd? The late April rally in the S&P 500 somewhat sweetened the bitter pill for Donald Trump. His first 100 days in office have

Marek Petkovich 09:23 2025-04-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A considerable number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, but we doubt they will have any meaningful impact on currency pair movements. The market continues to ignore most macroeconomic

Paolo Greco 06:28 2025-04-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 30: The Illusion of U.S. Democracy and Trump's Impeachment

The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight downward correction after Monday's rise, which came out of nowhere. However, it's difficult to call this minor move a "dollar recovery." The U.S

Paolo Greco 03:29 2025-04-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 30: The Main Mystery of 2025 Revealed

The EUR/USD currency pair continued trading within a narrow range on Tuesday, showing relatively low volatility. In reality, 80 pips per day is not a bad volatility level

Paolo Greco 03:29 2025-04-30 UTC+2

NZD/USD: Bullish Prospects Amid Uncertainty

Although the past week was completely uninformative regarding fundamental indicators, it allowed adjustments to forecasts on economic growth, inflation, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy strategy based

Kuvat Raharjo 00:43 2025-04-30 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.