Trade Review and USD/JPY Trading Advice

There were no tests of the levels I marked in the first half of the day.

In the second half of the day, investors and traders will focus on key US macroeconomic indicators, particularly the PMI indices for manufacturing and services. Weak data could undermine the dollar's position and trigger another wave of USD/JPY declines, as PMI indices are crucial indicators for assessing trends in production, consumer spending, and overall economic activity. These indicators are traditionally seen as leading economic indicators that reflect business sentiment and forecast future economic shifts. A rise in PMI indicates improved business conditions and expected expansion, while a decline signals slowing growth or even recession.

Additionally, markets will closely watch the speeches by FOMC members Austan D. Goolsbee and Christopher Waller. Their remarks on the current economic environment, inflation outlook, and the future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could significantly affect USD/JPY. Investors will scrutinize their statements for hints about potential rate cuts, aligning with the preferences of US President Donald Trump.

As for intraday strategy, I'll be focusing on executing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry point around 142.32 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 143.06 (thicker green line). Around 143.06, I plan to exit the buy trade and open a sell position in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). A bullish move is only likely today if US data is very strong. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 141.81 twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and prompt a market reversal upward. Expect a rise to the opposing levels of 142.32 and 143.06.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakdown of the 141.81 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick drop. The main target for sellers will be 141.15, where I'll exit short trades and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure could appear at any moment today. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 142.32 twice in a row while MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a drop to the opposite levels of 141.81 and 141.15.

Chart Guide:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or where to manually fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or where to manually fix profit, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – always monitor overbought and oversold areas before entering the market.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. Ahead of major economic reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management or trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan—like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market noise are usually a losing strategy for intraday traders.