Analysis of Monday's Trades
1H Chart of GBP/USD
On Monday, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement without any trouble. There were no macroeconomic reasons for this, and even the euro showed much more subdued movement by the end of the day. However, the British pound became more active on Monday after Donald Trump announced new tariffs and simultaneously denied his weekend statements about exempting certain types of electronics from import duties in the U.S. As we can see, nothing has changed. The U.S. president continues to escalate tensions worldwide, making decisions one day and reversing them the next. Consequently, the dollar has little reason to strengthen, although the market could enter a correction at any time. One should not blindly buy the pair every day based on a single factor. We believe market behavior like this is much more dangerous for traders than calm movement within a narrow range. Traders need a trend—but one that is calm, understandable, and technical.
5M Chart of GBP/USD
Only the first buy signal near the 1.3102–1.3107 area in the 5-minute timeframe was noteworthy on Monday. After it formed, the price moved upward by around 80 pips, and then chaos followed, with all levels and zones completely ignored. This is a reminder for novice traders that movements are currently chaotic, erratic, and far less technical than usual.
Trading Strategy for Tuesday:
In the one-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair should have started a downtrend long ago, but Trump continues to do everything to push the dollar lower. Since the official beginning of the global trade war, we've refrained from forecasting long-term price movements. The market remains under the control of Trump and his decisions. Trump announces new tariffs—the dollar falls again. Trump raises tariffs—the dollar falls again. Even a pause in escalation results in a flat market, or... the dollar still falls.
On Tuesday, GBP/USD may remain in stormy conditions. Predicting where the pound and the dollar will move today is nearly impossible. The pair is rising logically at the moment, but no one knows what news — and when — might come from Beijing, Brussels, or Washington.
On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at 1,2502-1,2508, 1,2547, 1,2613, 1,2680-1,2685, 1,2723, 1,2791-1,2798, 1,2848-1,2860, 1,2913, 1,2980-1,2993, 1,3043, 1,3102-1,3107, 1,3145-1,3167, 1,3225, 1,3272. On Tuesday, the UK is scheduled to release reports on unemployment, jobless claims, and wages. While this is interesting data, it's unlikely to have much influence on the market under current conditions.
Core Trading System Rules:
- Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
- False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
- MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.
Key Chart Elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
