empty
14.01.2025 01:15 PM
EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the EUR/USD pair shows signs of recovery following an overnight rebound from the 1.0180–1.0175 range, the lowest level since November 2022

The recovery is supported by a modest decline in the US dollar. However, confidence in further growth is lacking due to divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).

According to Bloomberg, economic advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are considering the possibility of gradual monthly tariff increases. This approach aims to strengthen negotiating leverage and prevent a surge in inflation, leading to a slight decline in US Treasury yields and weakening the dollar, which had recently reached a two-year high.

A decrease in concerns over potentially disruptive trade tariffs under Trump's return, along with efforts to bolster stability, has led to positive sentiment in stock markets. This undermines the dollar's position as a safe-haven currency, offering support for EUR/USD recovery. However, the Fed's hawkish December pivot could bolster US Treasury yields and the dollar.

An optimistic Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report published on Friday suggests that the Fed may pause its rate-cut cycle this year. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to continue rate cuts, raising concerns over economic instability in the Eurozone. These factors discourage traders from taking aggressive long positions on the euro, keeping EUR/USD below the 1.0300 psychological level.

For new trading opportunities today, focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which could stimulate demand for the dollar and impact the EUR/USD pair during the North American session. Additionally, attention should be directed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on Wednesday, which could influence Fed policy and determine the pair's short-term trajectory.

From a technical perspective, the intraday upward movement is capped by the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 1.0275 zone. This barrier serves as a pivot point for intraday traders. Sustained strength beyond this level could enable EUR/USD to break the psychological 1.0300 mark near the 200-hour SMA and rise further to an intermediate barrier at 1.0340 before reaching the 1.0400 level on the way to last week's monthly high.

On the other hand, weakness below the daily low of 1.0235 could push EUR/USD towards the 1.0200 level, exposing the two-year low near 1.0175 reached on Monday. Further selling below the two-year low could be seen as a new trigger for bears, paving the way for the extension of the established downtrend observed over the past four months.

Spot prices may then accelerate their decline to challenge the psychological level of 1.0100.

This image is no longer relevant

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Market Taken Hostage

Will the White House cross the Rubicon by initiating the dismissal of Jerome Powell from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve? That would deal another blow to financial

Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Why Are Markets Frozen and What Are They Waiting For? (There is a possibility of continued Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation in sideways ranges)

Today is Good Friday, a day Christians observe worldwide across all denominations. Market activity has noticeably decreased ahead of the Easter holiday, but this isn't the main reason for market

Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-18 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday—not in the US, the Eurozone, Germany, or the UK. Therefore, even if the market were paying any attention to the macroeconomic backdrop

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-04-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 18. Powell's Speech: Nothing Positive for the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade relatively calmly on Thursday, showing only a minimal downward bias. We still can't classify the current movement as a "pullback" or "correction."

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 18: The ECB Predictably Cut Rates, and the Market Predictably Ignored It

The EUR/USD currency pair spent most of the day moving sideways. When the European Central Bank meeting results were released, the market saw a small emotional reaction, but nothing fundamentally

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

The Dollar Undid Everything Itself

He meant well, but it turned out the usual way. Donald Trump firmly believes that tariffs can replace income tax, generate massive revenue for the budget, and bring about

Marek Petkovich 03:39 2025-04-18 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold is undergoing a corrective pullback today as traders take profits following its recent surge to a new all-time high. This decline, although moderate, is driven by several factors, including

Irina Yanina 12:00 2025-04-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

regarding upcoming changes in monetary policy from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB—its

Irina Yanina 11:55 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Is the Euro Ready for Another Rate Cut?

We'll find out very soon whether the euro is once again prepared for the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue easing monetary policy. Today, the ECB is expected to lower

Jakub Novak 11:38 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Powell Sees a More Restrictive Fed Policy This Year

The euro showed little reaction, while the pound slipped slightly against the U.S. dollar following yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to Powell, the Fed is currently

Jakub Novak 11:34 2025-04-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.