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16.03.2022 11:58 AM
Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on March 16
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Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Although there was a signal to sell after GBP/USD hit 1.3030, there was no strong decrease because the data on the UK labor market turned out to be better than expected. As such, it rose to 1.3063 by mid-day, forming a signal to buy. However, there was also no further increase because the MACD line being far from zero limited the upside potential of the pair. The second attempt to overcome 1.3030 also failed because the indicator was still far from zero.

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The latest data on the UK labor market surprised everyone. The unemployment rate fell much more than expected, as did the number of jobless claims. Similarly, the report on US producer prices diverged from the forecasts, indicating reduced inflation. But that is very favorable to the Federal Reserve.

There are no statistics scheduled to be released in the UK today, so markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. A higher-than-expected hike will increase demand for dollar, while a hike the same as the forecasts will maintain balance. In any case, GBP/USD will not fall much as traders are waiting for the Bank of England monetary policy meeting tomorrow.

For long positions:

Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.3065 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3098 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance for a rally today because everyone is waiting for the results of the two-day Fed meeting. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3046, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3065 and 1.3098.

For short positions:

Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.3046 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3003. Pressure may return at any moment because the market is still bearish .But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.3065, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3046 and 1.3003.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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