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22.10.2021 10:01 AM
Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on October 22
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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

EUR / USD declined on Thursday, thanks to the signal to sell that coincided with the MACD line moving down from zero. The situation allowed traders to take short positions, provoking a 10-pip drop in the pair. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

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Euro fell yesterday because the latest data on the US labor market brought demand back to dollar. But this morning the situation may turn around if the reports on EU manufacturing, service and composite PMI come out better than anticipated. Accordingly, if activity declines further, pressure will return, especially given the ongoing increase of Covid infections in the region.

US will release similar reports in the afternoon, and like euro, it will affect demand for dollar. There will also be a conference featuring Fed chairman Jerome Powell, and his statements could lead to a surge in volatility.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1635 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1668. Price will increase if the upcoming EU statistics exceed expectations.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1616, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1635 and 1.1668.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1616 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1581. Pressure may return if there are weak EU statistics and strong US data,

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1635, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1616 and 1.1581.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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