The New Zealand dollar is getting cheaper on the night of the September meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as well as due to the increased political uncertainty in the country. The New Zealand currency fell under the pressure of fundamental factors, and the coming events are unlikely to support the "kiwi". At the moment, there are no hindrances to the price decline to the 0.7140 level (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), so if tomorrow RBNZ does not present any unexpected move, the pair can begin the move towards this level within the next 24 hours.

As early as the beginning of the week, the New Zealand currency began to take its positions in response to the announced results of the parliamentary elections. The "National Party", which is currently in power, received 46% of the vote and can now count only 58 of the 120 seats in the parliament. Second place is the Labor Party (36%), whose representatives will occupy 45 seats in parliament. In other words, the leaders of the parliamentary elections can not now form a government on their own - they must look for political "fellow travelers".

Here you can draw an analogy from German events, but the primary difference lies in the fact that New Zealand has a "gold share" - the right-populist "New Zealand First". This political force took the third place in the elections and received 7.5% of the vote, meaning, 9 deputy seats. Despite such an insignificant figure, the right party can now influence the establishment of the majority by joining certain political alliances (for example, with the "Green"), whereas in Germany, the far-right can not influence the formation of a coalition.

Uncertain political situation in itself negatively affects the exchange rate of the national currency. But in this case, parliamentary battles are held also on the eve of the next meeting of the central bank. None of the experts had any hope that the RBNZ would raise the rate, but now, apparently, this issue will finally be put to rest. The point is that since its last meeting, the New Zealand economy has shown very contradictory results, which clearly do not contribute to the case of tightening monetary policy.

For example, inflation in monthly terms slowed to zero, and in annual terms fell to 1.7%. This result was worse than market expectations. Also data on foreign trade was disappointing- the trade deficit of New Zealand amounted to 1.235 million in August, contrary to fairly optimistic forecasts of analysts. Also, the price index for dairy products is growing rather poorly. The last auction of GlobalDairyTrade showed a small increase of + 0.9%, but dry milk products, cheddar, rennet casein, and lactose continued to lose value. The previous auction ended with a result of + 0.3%, and before that the indicator was completely in the negative area. For comparison: in the spring, the index showed an increase of about 3% in monthly terms. The meat and dairy industry, like tourism, is a strategically important industry, so this factor can not be dismissed.

Thus, from tomorrow's meeting of the RBNZ, any "compliments" on the current economic situation should not be expected. The fact that the national currency has weakened somewhat since the last meeting will not change the general mood of the central bank officials. First, the post-election period and the unstructured composition of the government, secondly, contradictory macroeconomic statistics, and thirdly, the continuing "verbal" war between the DPRK and the United States; all these factors minimize the likelihood of any changes.

There is another detail to be taken into account: tomorrow's meeting will be the first for the new head of New Zealand's Central Bank, Grant Spencer. His predecessor, Graham Wheeler, did not qualify for another term and resigned. Therefore, another intrigue of the September meeting is Spencer's position regarding the prospects for his actions. According to general expectations, he will not drastically change the course of the policy, but his vision of the situation, of course, will be expressed.