empty
28.03.2025 11:45 AM
EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the EUR/USD pair is consolidating near the key psychological level of 1.0800, showing no intention of retreating below 1.0780 as traders and investors await the release of the U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index.

This image is no longer relevant

This data will be closely watched for clues on the Federal Reserve's next steps, which are expected to significantly influence the dollar's short-term dynamics and potentially give new momentum to the EUR/USD pair.

Recent developments, including the introduction of 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks by U.S. President Donald Trump, along with duties on all steel and aluminum, have created market uncertainty and contributed to the weakening of the U.S. Dollar Index. This, in turn, is supporting the EUR/USD pair, especially in light of the Fed's forecasts for interest rate cuts. At the same time, a slight trade shift is preventing the dollar from extending its retreat from multi-week highs, limiting EUR/USD's upward potential.

This image is no longer relevant

Nevertheless, a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar appears unlikely for now, amid concerns that Trump's aggressive trade policies could slow U.S. economic growth, potentially forcing the Fed to resume rate cuts soon. Markets have already priced in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs at its monetary policy meetings in June, July, and October. This has kept dollar bulls on the defensive, helping to contain downside pressure on EUR/USD.

It is also worth noting that the EU is preparing retaliatory measures in response to U.S. tariffs, which could further escalate trade tensions and raise the risk of a trade war between the EU and the U.S., adding more pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, if the pair holds above the 1.0780 level, it could open the door to further gains. However, the 1.0725 level or the 200-day SMA remains key support, and a break below it would likely lead to additional selling. Still, with oscillators on the daily chart holding firmly in positive territory, the path of least resistance remains to the upside—especially if prices break through the 1.0800 mark.

The current situation calls for close monitoring, particularly in light of upcoming economic data and speeches from FOMC members.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Gold Rebounds as Fiscal Risks Resurface

Gold is swinging between extremes as spring draws to a close. The week ending May 16 was the worst for the precious metal due to optimism that, following a trade

Marek Petkovich 17:31 2025-05-23 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/JPY pair has started to attract buying interest, halting its pullback from the monthly high as demand for the Australian dollar emerges. Today's talks between U.S. Deputy Secretary

Irina Yanina 17:25 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The pair is trending lower, dropping close to the key psychological level of 1.3800 amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Traders have raised their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following

Irina Yanina 16:43 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD declares war on EUR

What's new is often just what's been forgotten. As spring draws to a close, the long-dismissed mantra "sell America" is making a comeback in markets. The phrase gained traction following

Marek Petkovich 14:59 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY: what happens with yen?

The USD/JPY pair is experiencing heightened price turbulence. At the end of April, the pair sharply declined, hitting a 7-month low at 139.90. Then, last week, a northbound impulse pushed

Irina Manzenko 13:52 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Market Chaos to Continue (There is a likelihood of continued local declines in #USDX and gold prices)

Markets continue to act blindly amid the chaotic actions of Donald Trump, who is trying to pull the U.S. out of a deep, all-encompassing crisis like Baron Munchausen pulling himself

Pati Gani 10:19 2025-05-23 UTC+2

The Market Tucks Its Tail

A necessary project at the wrong time. The House of Representatives has approved Donald Trump's tax cut initiative. The President hopes it will help stimulate the economy and offset shortcomings

Marek Petkovich 09:29 2025-05-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 23: No Talks, but Hang in There

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly, but like EUR/USD, it has been rising for two weeks. At first glance, one might wonder what reasons traders have

Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 23: The Rebellion Against the Dollar Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, yet it has risen significantly over the past two weeks. This movement can be interpreted in several ways. From a technical

Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. Only two are noteworthy: the final estimate of Germany's Q1 GDP and April's UK retail sales data. The German GDP report

Paolo Greco 05:58 2025-05-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.