empty
16.04.2025 01:08 AM
The Euro Scared Itself with Its Own Momentum

The euro's surge to the area of three-year highs became possible thanks to Germany's fiscal stimulus, Donald Trump's trade policy, and a capital outflow from North America into Europe. When investors stopped buying stock indices in the EU, they turned their attention to German bonds. These became the alternative to Treasuries and helped push EUR/USD higher.

Some are mesmerized by the rollercoaster in the S&P 500, others by the sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, and some can't take their eyes off Germany's debt instruments. German bond yields have returned to the levels from which their rally began—after the Bundestag amended the fiscal brake rule. The peak was reached in mid-March, after which investors fled to safe havens, reversing the upward trend in yields.

German bond yield dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

In theory, a widening yield spread in favor of U.S. Treasuries should lead to a drop in EUR/USD due to the increased attractiveness of U.S. assets. In practice, the surge in U.S. bond yields is the result of foreign investor sell-offs—former allies of Washington turning into rivals.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calmed the markets with a statement that the Treasury has an arsenal of tools capable of knocking the wind out of any opponent. The stabilization of yields and their spread relative to German bonds resembled the calm before the storm, keeping EUR/USD stuck in a narrow trading range.

The main currency pair is waiting for signals from the U.S. stock market and ignoring the sharp drop in investor confidence in the German economy. The ZEW expectations index collapsed from 51.6 to -14 in April due to concerns over the White House's tariff impact on the German economy.

Investor confidence in the German economy

This image is no longer relevant

It's worth noting that the capital flow from North America to Europe is not the only driver of the EUR/USD rally. According to forecasts from The Wall Street Journal, U.S. GDP is expected to grow by a modest 0.8% in 2025—about the same as in Europe. That's quite unusual, considering tariffs' damaging effects on the export-driven eurozone. Analysts likely considered the sharp rise in German exports in 2024, which hit the highest level since 2002.

This image is no longer relevant

However, this was driven by front-loaded U.S. imports ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration. Going forward, Germany's economy is unlikely to perform as well as it did at the 2024–2025 turn. This factor could hinder further euro appreciation, especially ahead of the European Central Bank's expected rate cuts.

From a technical perspective, a so-called inside bar has formed on the daily EUR/USD chart, signaling market indecision. A breakout below the lower boundary around 1.129 would justify short-term selling, while a successful push above the upper boundary near 1.143 would open the door for buying.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O mercado está mudando as regras do jogo

Não vá contra a maré. Segundo dados do Federal Reserve e do Goldman Sachs, investidores individuais detinham cerca de US$ 35 trilhões em ações dos EUA no final de 2024

Marek Petkovich 17:51 2025-05-14 UTC+2

A inflação enfraquece ainda mais o dóla

Um dos poucos indicadores que o mercado ainda observa com atenção é a inflação nos Estados Unidos. Após a introdução de tarifas comerciais por Donald Trump, economistas passaram a discutir

Chin Zhao 16:48 2025-05-14 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Análise e previsão

A configuração técnica e fundamental atual do par AUD/JPY sugere uma pressão de curto prazo favorável ao iene japonês. No entanto, fatores de suporte ao dólar australiano mantêm o viés

Irina Yanina 15:37 2025-05-14 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O principal fator de apoio à moeda japonesa foi o tom hawkish do vice-governador do Banco do Japão, Shinichi Uchida, que sinalizou abertura para uma maior normalização da política monetária

Irina Yanina 15:30 2025-05-14 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CHF está recuando a partir da alta mensal alcançada ontem. Este recuo é impulsionado por uma correção técnica após um forte movimento ascendente. O índice do dólar americano

Irina Yanina 22:54 2025-05-13 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par USD/CAD dá continuidade à sua sequência de cinco dias de alta, sendo negociado próximo ao nível psicológico chave de 1,4000, onde encontra resistência antes da divulgação

Irina Yanina 20:16 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par EUR/JPY recua levemente, mantendo perdas abaixo de 164,40 após a divulgação das pesquisas ZEW de Sentimento Econômico para a Alemanha e a Zona do Euro. Em maio

Irina Yanina 19:54 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 13 de maio? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Vários eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para esta terça-feira, mas a maioria deles deve ter apenas impacto limitado sobre a movimentação dos principais pares de moedas. Vale lembrar que o mercado

Paolo Greco 17:52 2025-05-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD - 13 de maio: A libra esterlina sofre um revés inesperado

O par GBP/USD despencou rapidamente nesta segunda-feira. Os Estados Unidos, representados pelo secretário do Tesouro Scott Bessent, anunciaram os primeiros sinais de progresso nas negociações comerciais com a China. Após

Paolo Greco 17:41 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUA e China: Uma trégua de 90 dias. Relatório de inflação dos E.U.A. em foco (alta probabilidade de queda no EUR/USD e GBP/USD)

Na segunda-feira, os mercados respiraram aliviados após o anúncio de um acordo comercial entre os Estados Unidos e a China. O acordo prevê reduções tarifárias mútuas, mas com validade limitada

Pati Gani 17:05 2025-05-13 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.