Forex Analysis & Reviews: 16.04.2020 - EUR/USD: plan for the US...

16.04.2020 02:33 PM

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on April 16. The euro was not allowed below this week's lows. Bears are counting on a breakout of 1.0857

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

German inflation data coincided with economists' expectations, which limited pressure on the euro. In my morning forecast, I recommended opening short positions after forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0905, which happened, but there was no larger sale of the European currency. The final result is +50 points, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. The bulls managed to hold the pair above the lows of this week, forming the support of 1.0857, on which the further direction depends. However, it will be possible to talk about the resumption of the upward trend only after fixing above the range of 1.0905, which will lead to a larger increase in the euro/dollar pair to the area of the maximum of 1.0965, where I recommend fixing the profits. Weak data on the US labor market may increase pressure on the euro. Therefore, it is best to expect purchases in the scenario of a decline from the minimum of 1.0814, or even lower, from the support of 1.0770, where larger players will show themselves.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers need to re-form a false breakout at the level of 1.0905 since only this scenario will lead to another movement of the euro/dollar pair in the area of the month's lows to the support of 1.0857 and to its breakdown. Poor data on the US labor market will allow bears to break below 1.0857, which will open a direct path to the area of 1.0814, and then to the April minimum - 1.0770, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the bulls are more persistent, then after breaking through the resistance of 1.0905, I advise you to consider new short positions only after updating the area of 1.0965, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the advantage of sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of an upward correction of the euro in the second half of the day, short positions can be returned to the rebound from the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.0925. A break of the lower border in the area of 1.0857 will return pressure on the European currency.

Description of indicators

Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20

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Miroslaw Bawulski,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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