GBP/USD is returning to the 1.3235 level despite a moderate advance in the U.S. dollar toward its June high.

However, the potential for further gains appears limited.

Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan have officially announced a 60-day roadmap aimed at achieving a final peace agreement between the United States and Iran. This development is limiting gains in the U.S. dollar and triggering intraday short-covering in GBP/USD. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy continue to support the dollar.

On Saturday, Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the renewed conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Moreover, Iranian delegates withdrew from peace talks in Switzerland following warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump about the possibility of new military strikes against Iran. This has increased geopolitical risks, supporting bullish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on GBP/USD.

At the same time, reports suggest that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer may announce his resignation today, opening the way for former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who is considered a likely successor. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom may continue to weigh on the British pound and limit the upward potential of GBP/USD, warranting caution before opening aggressive long positions.

In addition, expectations of fewer future interest rate increases by the Bank of England suggest that any further upward movement in the pair may be viewed as a selling opportunity. Therefore, strong buying interest is required to confirm that GBP/USD has formed a short-term bottom before expecting a meaningful recovery from Friday's low, which was the lowest level since late March.

From a technical perspective, oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that bears retain the advantage. However, the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory, indicating the potential for a corrective rebound. Resistance is located at 1.3235, while Friday's low continues to serve as support. A break below this level could trigger a sharper decline. If the pair overcomes the nearest resistance, the next obstacle is likely to emerge at the psychological level of 1.3300.