The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD has become somewhat more complex. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed its formation around the $75,000 mark. Following this, a rather strong upward movement began, which could be the start of a new impulsive trend. Currently, the first wave appears to be complete, so a corrective wave 2 or b should be expected next. After that, Bitcoin's upward movement will likely resume, at least within the framework of wave c.

Bitcoin has long been supported by a steady flow of news about institutional investment, government involvement, and even pension funds. However, Trump's policies have recently driven some investors out of the market. Nonetheless, with the U.S. stock market and bond market in decline, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a hedge, as it is less influenced by Trump's decisions. Once again, Bitcoin is being viewed as a "crisis hedge," increasing the probability of renewed growth for the digital asset.

BTC/USD has surged by $19,000 in a short period, which is substantial considering the current global economic instability. The reasons for this rally are varied, but each of them can be reasonably questioned. For instance, Bitcoin began rising after reports emerged that Trump is not planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But how exactly does Powell's job security relate to Bitcoin?

Many economists now expect the Fed to begin cutting rates. However, Powell has consistently stated that the FOMC will respond to changes in economic data, not to shifts in Trump's trade policies. Some are even anticipating a new round of quantitative easing (QE), which would inject new liquidity into the economy—similar to what we saw during the COVID-19 era. While such policies could benefit cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, there is no sign of QE being launched yet. Moreover, it is highly questionable whether the Fed—after years of battling inflation—would now take steps that could reignite it.

So, much of the reasoning behind Bitcoin's rally seems speculative or, at the very least, highly debatable. Based on this, I believe we are more likely to see the formation of a corrective wave structure, rather than a new impulsive one. As I've stated in previous months, a prolonged and complex corrective phase still lies ahead.

Final Thoughts

Based on the analysis of BTC/USD, I conclude that the downward segment of the trend is still developing. All signs point toward a complex, multi-month correction. Therefore, I have not recommended buying Bitcoin before, and I see even less reason to do so now. In my view, the best approach remains looking for selling opportunities.

At this stage, Bitcoin appears to be forming a corrective upward sequence of waves, which has not yet completed. Once wave c concludes, I would begin to seek short positions, targeting the $75,000 level.

On the higher wave scale, we can still see a completed five-wave upward structure. What is currently unfolding looks like the beginning of a corrective, downward phase or potentially a full-blown bearish cycle.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often unpredictable.
2. If uncertainty dominates the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction—always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.