Forex Analysis & Reviews: 11.03.2025 - Markets Do Not Forgive...

Live Chat

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

11.03.2025 10:00 AM

Markets Do Not Forgive Betrayal

The S&P 500 sell-off accelerated amid the White House's indifference to a potential economic downturn. The broad stock index tumbled as Donald Trump refused to rule out a U.S. recession, leading to a decline driven by tech stocks. The NASDAQ 100 suffered its worst trading day since 2022, while the Magnificent Seven has already fallen 20% from its December peaks.

Performance of the Magnificent Seven Stocks

Donald Trump stated that the U.S. economy is in a transition period and that investors should not focus on the stock market. This starkly contradicts the expectations investors had following the presidential election. The Republican had promised that the U.S. would be fine, as higher tariffs would offset tax cuts. However, in early spring, the White House dramatically changed its stance, now arguing that the path to future prosperity and a new "Golden Age" requires some short-term sacrifices.

Saying that the stock market is not worth watching could be considered a betrayal. During his first presidential term, Trump used stock market performance as a benchmark of his administration's success. Investors now understand why—back then, the S&P 500 was rising, which pleased the Republican leader. Now that the index is falling, it is no longer a valid measure? Repeating his past rhetoric would mean admitting failure.

The market is increasingly fearful that tariffs could devastate the U.S. economy, leading to the first surge in the volatility index (VIX) since August. The VIX is now above 30. According to Nomura Securities, the gradual rise in the "fear index," rather than a sharp spike as seen in past market corrections, signals an increasing likelihood of further stock market declines. JP Morgan has abandoned its S&P 500 target of 6,500, which was approximately 13% above current levels, arguing that greater uncertainty creates a wider range of possible market outcomes.

U.S. Stock Market Volatility Trends

Both Citigroup and HSBC Holdings have advised clients to reduce their exposure to U.S. stocks and seek opportunities elsewhere, particularly in China and Europe. Unlike the United States, these regions are pursuing fiscal stimulus measures to mitigate the effects of ongoing or potential trade wars with the U.S.

Meanwhile, recession risks in the U.S. are soaring.

Goldman Sachs raised its probability of a U.S. recession from 15% to 20%.
Yardeni Research increased its estimate from 20% to 35%.
JP Morgan raised its forecast from 35% to 40%.
Morgan Stanley lowered its GDP growth projections to 1.5% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026.

Technical Outlook for the S&P 500

The daily chart of the S&P 500 indicates that the market remains in a correction within a broader uptrend. The index's distance from its EMA suggests growing bearish momentum. Traders should continue following the previously outlined short-selling strategy, at least as long as the index remains below 5,800. Pullbacks that fail at the 5,670 and 5,750 resistance levels could provide new short-selling opportunities.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.