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17.02.2022 10:31 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on February 17
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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

A signal to buy emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.1365. However, the pair did not increase because the MACD line being far from zero limited the upside potential of the pair. Fortunately, the second attempt was successful because it led to a rise of about 30 pips.

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Although the report on EU industrial production was much better than expected, traders took short positions in EUR/USD because of more convincing data on the growth of US retail sales and industrial production. The sharp increase, especially in retail sales, was another confirmation of rising inflationary pressures in the country, which will force the Fed to act more aggressively towards monetary policy.

Going back to the EU, several speeches are scheduled for today, but the most important ones are Isabelle Schnabel and Philip Lane's. Economic bulletin from the ECB is also significant, while the report on the foreign trade balance of Italy is not that pivotal.

In the afternoon, the US will release data on jobless claims, manufacturing activity and issued building permits, but more interesting is the speech of FOMC member James Bullard, who is known for his aggressive approach to interest rates.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1361 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1391 (thicker green line on the chart). A rally will occur if data from the eurozone and reports from the ECB exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it before taking long positions. It is also possible to buy at 1.1345, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1361 and 1.1391.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1345 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1314. Pressure will return if data from the eurozone turns out weaker than expected and if economic reports in the US exceed expectations. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.1361, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1345 and 1.1314.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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