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20.01.2022 09:29 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on January 20
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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

EUR/USD hit 1.1345 early Wednesday, however, there was no strong movement even though the MACD line was above zero. Then, some time after, the same situation emerged, but this time the indicator was in the overbought area, so the signal was to sell in the market. That led to an 11-pip decrease in the pair. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

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CPI data in Germany and the balance of payments of the ECB did not provoke a rise in EUR/USD because the figures were the same as the forecasts. That kept the market more uncertain on the further direction of the pair. Meanwhile, reports on the US housing market were ignored by traders.

Today, Germany will release data on producer prices, which will be followed by a report on consumer prices in the whole eurozone. Strong figures will prompt an increase in euro as that will strengthen expectations for an early rate hike. Another key event is the monetary policy meeting of the ECB.

In the afternoon, the US will release reports on jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed. It is best to take short positions as pressure on risky assets is gradually increasing due to the Fed policy.

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For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1360 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1391. Growth will occur if reports from Germany and the eurozone exceed expectations.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1336, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1360 and 1.1391.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1336 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1295. EUR/USD will decline if economic data from the eurozone are lower than expected.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1360, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1336 and 1.1295.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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