empty
26.03.2025 03:40 AM
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 26: No News, No Movement

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with low volatility on Tuesday. There have been times when the euro would crawl just 40 pips a day, and while current volatility isn't extremely low, it's certainly not high either. The price has settled below the moving average—and, miracle of miracles!—it has remained below it for three days. As a result, the U.S. dollar has appreciated slightly over the past few days.

However, every trader understands that the dollar only strengthens within a modest corrective phase. The technical picture is contradictory if you try to piece together all the timeframes. According to classic technical analysis, one should start with the higher timeframes. So, let's look at the monthly chart—what do we see? A 16-year downtrend that shows no signs of ending. On the weekly chart—same story. There is also a downtrend on the daily chart, as the last downward wave was stronger than the previous and subsequent corrections. So, the three highest timeframes suggest that the dollar will continue to strengthen.

Of course, any trend eventually ends, but we keep returning to the same question: what could drive the euro to rise to $1.15 or even $1.25? After all, we're talking about global trends here, not 200-pip moves. And for a 1,000–1,500 pip rise, Donald Trump alone won't be enough. The euro needs broader growth drivers.

In recent weeks, the dollar's decline has been driven solely by "Donald Trump." Of course, the U.S. president can keep dragging the dollar down, primarily since it benefits him. However, this would mean the market will continue to ignore all factors except Trump's trade policy.

To recap, the U.S. economy began slowing in the fourth quarter of last year and will likely continue to slow in 2025. But even with that slowdown, it's still growing much faster than the European or British economies. The Federal Reserve has not cut rates and is unlikely to implement more than two rate cuts in 2025—an outcome far more hawkish than markets anticipated last year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank might lower rates even below 2%. The ECB needs to stimulate the economy, whereas Jerome Powell claims there are no problems with the U.S. economy.

So, if not for Donald Trump and his radical, unconventional decisions, we would still expect the U.S. dollar to rise. However, the market continues to interpret fundamentals and macroeconomics through a one-sided lens. And we, in turn, must draw traders' attention to this obvious fact. The euro might continue to rise simply because anything is possible in the market. But there are no clear or compelling reasons for such growth.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days (as of March 26) is 77 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect the pair to trade between 1.0732 and 1.0886 on Wednesday. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the global downtrend remains intact, as seen in higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0742

S2 – 1.0620

S3 – 1.0498

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.0864

R2 – 1.0986

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a weak downward correction. For months, we've consistently stated that we expect a medium-term decline in the euro, and that view remains unchanged. The dollar still has no reason to fall in the medium term—other than Donald Trump. Short positions remain far more attractive, with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, though it is difficult to say when this irrational upward movement will finally end. If you're trading based purely on technicals, long positions may be considered if the price rises above the moving average, with a target of 1.0986.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD Overview – May 22: A New Blow to the Dollar: "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar has been falling steadily for over a week—something that hasn't happened in over a month. However, every

Paolo Greco 08:10 2025-05-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 22: The Market Once Again Responds Clearly to Trump

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to move north on Wednesday, even though, at first glance, there appeared to be no apparent reason for it. Yes, the inflation report—the only release

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-22 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 22? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are several important macroeconomic reports scheduled for release on Thursday. Business activity indexes for May's services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Bank of England to Slow Down the Pace of Policy Easing

The Bank of England recently cut interest rates for the second time in 2025, justifying its decision with slowing inflation and steady movement toward the target level. But no sooner

Chin Zhao 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Dollar Sawed Off the Branch It Was Sitting On

Can the euro be considered a strong currency? I have significant doubts about that. An independent group of economic advisors to Friedrich Merz forecasts that the German economy will enter

Marek Petkovich 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Yen Goes on a Buyer Strike

A collapse in confidence in the U.S. dollar, rumors of coordinated currency intervention, and capital repatriation to Japan are driving USD/JPY back into a downtrend. The music playing

Marek Petkovich 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Continued Weakness in the U.S. Dollar

The four-week-long southern impulse we saw in EUR/USD has fully faded. Last week, sellers pushed the pair to a monthly low at 1.1066, but then seemed to "fear their

Irina Manzenko 18:59 2025-05-21 UTC+2

High Inflation Supports the Pound. GBP/USD Outlook

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.6% to 3.5% in April, surprising the market, which had expected an increase to 3.3%. The core CPI also exceeded forecasts

Kuvat Raharjo 18:47 2025-05-21 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is attracting sellers for the third consecutive day. A break below the 1.3900 level signals increased selling pressure, which could lead to further downside. Rising oil prices—driven

Irina Yanina 18:41 2025-05-21 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

For the third consecutive day, the USD/CHF pair continues to lose ground. The fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The pair has been

Irina Yanina 18:38 2025-05-21 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.