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19.01.2022 08:34 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on January 19
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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

EUR/USD hit 1.1380 during the US session, however, the MACD line was far below zero so the downside potential was limited. Some time after a signal to buy emerged, but it also led to losses.

This image is no longer relevant

The indices on business sentiment and current conditions in Germany exceeded expectations, but did not lead to a strong increase in euro. That is why sellers became more aggressive, leading to a decline in EUR/USD. In the afternoon, a further drop was observed amid strong reports on US manufacturing and housing starts. Expectations of an early rate hike also fueled demand for dollar

Today, Germany will release data on consumer prices, followed by a report on the current account balance of the ECB. More important will be the data on inflation as its growth will help offset yesterday's decline in prices. But if bullish activity eases, EUR/USD will continue to fall in the short term. In the afternoon, reports on the US housing market will be published, which may prompt another increase in dollar.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1345 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1391. Growth will occur if reports from Germany exceed expectations.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1304, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1345 and 1.1391.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1304 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1254. EUR/USD will decline if economic data from Germany is lower than expected.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1345, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1304 and 1.1254.

This image is no longer relevant

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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