Trade Analysis for Monday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued its downward correction on Monday against the backdrop of an upward trend, which is clearly visible on the hourly timeframe. The price has tested the ascending trend line for the second time, so a breach of this line would indicate the beginning of a new downward trend, while a bounce would signal a continuation of the British currency's growth. From a technical standpoint, the British pound can strengthen even without support from local fundamental and macroeconomic factors, as a flat pattern persists on the weekly timeframe. On Monday, there were no significant events or publications in the UK or the U.S., so traders had nothing to react to throughout the day. Market movements are currently purely technical, and geopolitics is not influencing trader sentiment, as evidenced by the three-week rise of the British currency amidst the resumption of conflict in the Middle East.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one sell signal was formed on Monday. For 10 hours, the pair formed a bounce from the area of 1.3456-1.3476 and ultimately completed it. The decline in quotes may continue today with a target of 1.3380-1.3386.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues its upward trend. We believe that the recent rise of the pound is a recovery of fair value and a technical movement justified by the sideways channel on higher timeframes. The trend line on the hourly timeframe remains relevant. A consolidation below this line will allow the pair to begin a new trend. We believe a new dollar trend is only possible in the event of an escalation of the war in the Middle East or a blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

On Tuesday, novice traders may maintain short positions after a bounce from the area of 1.3456-1.3476, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. A bounce from the area of 1.3380-1.3386 will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.3456-1.3476. Volatility may again be weak today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at levels 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695. On Tuesday, reports on unemployment, the number of unemployed, and wages will be published in the UK, which may provoke a weak market reaction. In the U.S., there will be a weekly ADP report, which is likely to be ignored. We expect technical movements today along with possibly low volatility.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.