Wednesday's Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair showed no notable movements on Wednesday but resumed its upward trajectory by the end of the day, even without a correction. Thus, the European currency continues to recover all that was lost in the last two months. As we had anticipated, as soon as geopolitical factors receded into the background, the market began shedding the U.S. dollar. And currently, there is no significant local reason for this. The market has ignored the entire macroeconomic backdrop and all fundamental events that typically did not favor the U.S. dollar for two consecutive months. Additionally, it is important not to forget the global fundamental backdrop, exemplified by Donald Trump's overall policies. Against this backdrop, the dollar has been falling throughout 2025, and 2026 is no different from its predecessor. Thus, the euro could quickly recover to the year's highs if the war in the Middle East does not reignite with renewed force.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Therefore, there were no grounds for novice traders to open new trades. The last buy signal was generated on Tuesday, when the price rebounded from the 1.1745-1.1754 area. This trade can still be kept open.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend continues to hold and is even gaining momentum. After two months of uninterrupted dollar growth driven solely by geopolitical factors, the market seems to have concluded that this cannot continue indefinitely. For the second consecutive week, the market is essentially ignoring the geopolitical backdrop. Thus, traders can once again focus on the economy and Trump's policies. And here, the U.S. dollar has few chances...

On Thursday, novice traders may consider short positions if the price rebounds from the 1.1830-1.1837 area, targeting 1.1745-1.1754. New buy trades can be considered on a close above the 1.1830-1.1837 area, targeting 1.1899-1.1908.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Thursday, the Eurozone will release the second estimate of inflation for March, which is not particularly interesting as it is unlikely to differ from the first. In the U.S., there are two secondary reports: one on jobless claims and another on industrial production.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.