Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

A signal to sell emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.0848. However, there was no decrease because the MACD line being far from zero limited the downside potential of the pair. The quote rose to 1.0905 instead, but even then the MACD line was far from zero, so the growth was limited. The second attempt was more successful though as by that time, the indicator was in the overbought area, so the signal to sell prompted a more than 50-pip decrease.

EUR/USD continues to decline because risk appetite is low amidst the current conditions. Yesterday's data on investor confidence also disappointed as it showed a sharp decline in the indicator and accordingly, investor confidence in the future.

But the situation promises to be a little better today as negotiations in Ukraine went well. There will also be reports on industrial production in Germany, retail sales in Italy, 4th quarter GDP and employment in the eurozone, where little change is expected. But if there is, then euro will post a rally this morning. During the US session, the NFIB will publish data on business optimism, followed by a report on the foreign trade balance in the US. There is a low chance that these will affect the market, so traders better not focus on them.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0895 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0978 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance for a rally today because of the expected weak data from the eurozone and ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it before taking long positions. It is also possible to buy at 1.0834, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0895 and 1.0978.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0834 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0768. Pressure will return if tension in Ukraine does not ease. The breakdown of the yearly low will also lead to a new sell-off and intensification of the bearish trend. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0895, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0834 and 1.0768.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.