To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3160 and recommended deciding on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. The decline of the pound in the area of 1.3160 and the formation of a false breakdown there led to an excellent signal to buy the pound, which I paid attention to in the morning. As a result, at the time of writing, the pair showed an increase of more than 50 points, and the demand for the pound was only increasing. From a technical point of view, nothing has changed, nor has the strategy changed. And what were the entry points for the euro this morning?

The bulls made themselves clear by making the last attempts to protect the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed on March 14 of this year. The primary task for buyers during the American session remains to protect the support of 1.3160. Only after the formation of a false breakdown at this level, by analogy with what I discussed above, can we count on further recovery of the pair. But remember that 1.3160 will be tested for the second time during the day, so if there are no active actions of bulls at this level again, I advise you to abandon purchases. With the growth of GBP/USD, buyers will quickly return the pair to the resistance of 1.3210, just above which the moving averages are already playing on the sellers' side. Given that there are no statistics on the US economy this afternoon, we can expect a larger correction of the pound upward. A breakthrough and a reverse test of this area from top to bottom will lead to the demolition of several sellers' stop orders, allowing the bulls to get out to the area of the highs: 1.3242 and 1.3286. The 1.3340 area will be a more distant target, but access to it will open only in case of good news on the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. I recommend fixing profits there. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD during the American session and the absence of bulls at 1.3160, it is best to postpone purchases until the next support of 1.3121 - this is a more reliable level, additionally acting as the lower boundary of the new ascending channel. I also advise you to open long positions there only when forming a false breakdown. You can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3089, or even lower - from a minimum of 1.3046, counting on a correction of 30-35 points within a day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears coped with the task set in the morning, but they failed to fail 1.3160 - this indicates the presence of large buyers in the market, which I told about in the morning forecast. As I noted above, there are no macroeconomic statistics for the US, as there are no speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, which will limit the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, the primary task of the bears is to protect the resistance of 1.3210, where the moving averages are playing on their side. The formation of a false breakdown there will push the pair to the nearest support of 1.3160, which is now intermediate. A breakout and a reverse test of this level from the bottom up will form an additional sell signal, which will open a direct road to the lows of 1.3121 and 1.3089, where I recommend fixing profits. A more distant target will be 1.3046. In case of GBP/USD growth in the afternoon and weak sellers' activity at 1.3210, it is best to postpone sales until the next major resistance at 1.3242. I also advise you to open short positions there in case of a false breakdown. It is possible to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.3286, or even higher - from a maximum of 1.3340, counting on a correction of the pair down by 20-25 points inside the day.

The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 15 recorded a sharp reduction in long positions and only small changes in short ones. The last meeting of the Bank of England reflected badly on the British pound. Despite the increase in interest rates, which was expected, the regulator did not signal an increase in aggressive policy, preferring more dovish rhetoric, despite inflation, which is breaking long-term records in the UK. The discontent of the country's population complicates the life of the British regulator, although more aggressive actions in the current difficult geopolitical conditions may harm the economy more than help it. Now everything depends on how to cause her the least harm, because the fight against inflation is just beginning, and what will happen this spring is a mystery to many. Against this background, traders are in no hurry to buy the British pound, which shows a rather large weakness in a pair with the US dollar. The Federal Reserve meeting was also the central event of last week. As a result, the committee raised interest rates by 0.25%, which did not lead to serious changes in the market, as many expected such decisions. Against this background, I recommend continuing to buy the dollar, since the bearish trend for the GBP/USD pair has not gone away. The only thing that now saves the pound from a major sell-off is high inflation in the UK, which will eventually force the Bank of England to act more actively. The COT report for March 15 indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased from 50,982 to the level of 32,442, while short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 63,508 to the level of 61,503. This led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position from -12,526 to -29,061. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.3010 against 1.3113.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the bears' attempts to return to the market.

Note. The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In case of growth, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3220 will act as resistance. In the event of a decline in the pound, the lower limit of the indicator around 1.3170 will act as support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.