To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3219 and recommended making decisions on entering the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out the entry point. The market continues to storm ahead of an important meeting of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank later this year. No one can understand what will happen to the eurozone policy, and it is even more difficult to imagine how the head of the Fed is going to fight inflation without raising rates. But back to the technical picture. The pair's growth in the first half of the day and the formation of a false breakdown at 1.3219 led to the formation of a good signal to sell the pound further along with the trend. However, to my regret, the signal brought losses. The breakthrough of 1.3219 passed without a reverse test, as I noted on the chart, so it was not possible to enter long positions from this level. For the second half of the day, the technical picture has not changed much. And what about the morning signals for the euro?

We are waiting for important data on inflation in the US, which can provide even greater support to the pound if the growth rate slows down. In the case of a strong report, the pressure on the pound will return, so the most optimal scenario for the second half of the day will be the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.3219, where the moving averages are playing on the buyers' side. This will lead to a signal to open long positions with the expectation of continuing the morning trend. If there is no activity at 1.3219, I advise you to postpone purchases to the local lows of 1.3187 and 1.3153, where you can buy immediately for a rebound based on at least 15-20 correction points within the day. If the bulls manage to protect 1.3219, an equally important task will be to rise above 1.3255, which at the time of writing the review was rested by the buyers of the pound. A breakout and a reverse test of 1.3255 from top to bottom will lead to the formation of an additional buy signal to restore GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.3286. A similar breakthrough of this level will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3317 and 1.3349, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the British pound did not cope with the tasks set in the morning and after an unsuccessful attempt to defend 1.3219 decided not to tempt fate, retreating to the next resistance of 1.3255. The emphasis is now placed on this level. The bears' initial task for the second half of the day will be to protect the resistance of 1.3255 formed during yesterday's European session. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will give a good entry point into short positions with a repeated decline to the area of 1.3219, where the moving averages playing on the side of the bulls pass. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this level form an additional entry point into short positions with the prospect of a decline already in the area of monthly lows: 1.3187 and 1.3153, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pair grows during the US session and weak activity at 1.3255 after the release of several fundamental statistics on the US, it is best to postpone sales to the upper limit of the 1.3286 side channel. I also advise you to open short positions there only in case of a false breakdown. It is possible to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only from a large resistance of 1.3317, or even higher - from a maximum of 1.3349, counting on the pair's rebound down by 20-25 points inside the day.

The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for December 7 recorded a reduction in both short and long positions. Given the almost equal reduction of positions, this did not lead to serious changes in the negative delta. Poor data on the UK economy, which came out at the end of last week, clearly soured the mood of buyers of risky assets, counting on an upward correction of the pair before the meeting of the Bank of England. This week, the governor of the Central Bank, Andrew Bailey, will talk about his position on further monetary policy. If it continues to be dovish, most likely, the pressure on the pound will only increase, since representatives of the Federal Reserve System, on the contrary, are going to curtail stimulus measures, which should support the US dollar. High inflation remains the main reason why the Bank of England may change its mind about maintaining stimulus measures, but uncertainty will remain until the publication of the results of the meeting on December 16. An equally serious problem for the UK is a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus, which can lead to another lockdown and the closure of the country for quarantine. So far, the authorities have to closely monitor the development of the situation with the new strain, which negatively affects the economy at the end of this year. The COT report for December 7 indicated that long non-commercial positions fell from the level of 52,099 to the level of 48,950, while short non-commercial positions fell from the level of 90,998 to the level of 87,227. This led to the preservation of the negative non-commercial net position almost unchanged: -38,277 versus -38,899 a week earlier. The weekly closing price sank slightly - from 1.3314 to 1.3262.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by bulls to return to the market.

Note. The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3235 will lead to an increase in the pound. In case of a decline, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3187 will provide support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.