To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The pressure on the euro remained in the afternoon, although during the European session the bulls tried to keep the market under their control. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and understand the entry points. In the first half of the day, after a slight downward correction of the pair, it is clearly seen how several false breakouts at the level of 1.1783 formed good entry points to long positions in continuation of the upward trend. However, the lack of important fundamental reports negatively affected the volatility of the pair. As a result of the directed upward movement, I never saw it. In the second half of the day, after the bears traversed the bulls' stop orders below 1.1783 and tested this level from the bottom up, a signal to sell the euro was formed. However, it did not bring any profit either, since until the end of the day, trading was mainly conducted around this level.

Before talking about further prospects for the EUR/USD movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions have changed. In the COT report for August 10, there is a clear increase in traders' interest in the market, as both long and short positions increased, but the latter turned out to be more, which led to a reduction in the positive delta. Last week, many traders focused on the consumer price index of the United States of America, which has slowed after record growth rates and in line with economists' forecasts. This seriously influenced the desire of traders to buy the US dollar in anticipation of the imminent changes in the bank's monetary policy. Given these inflationary surges, the Federal Reserve can be expected to slow down the changes in the bond buying program that many investors were counting on as early as September this year. Accordingly, this will weaken the dollar's position. But you shouldn't think that against this background the euro will sharply rise. The lack of benchmarks due to the new strain of the Delta coronavirus and the incomprehensible reaction of the European economy to it - all this will force the European Central Bank to continue to adhere to a wait-and-see attitude and maintain a stimulating policy at current levels, and this negatively affects the euro. Therefore, all that remains is to look at small surges of volatility within the day - at least this state of the market will be until the fall of this year. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 199,067 to 212,809, while short non-commercial positions jumped from 161,060 to 178,952. By the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position decreased from 38,007 to the level of 33 857. The weekly closing price also dropped from 1.1874 to 1.1736.

Finally, today the market will be pleased with quite interesting fundamental reports. The eurozone GDP report for the second quarter of this year will be published in the morning. Growth is expected to be only 2.0 percent. Also, there will be a report on changes in the level of employment in the euro area. If the data exceeds the forecasts of economists, we can expect the bulls to return to the market. In this case, the bulls must test the strength of the resistance of 1.1783, which was formed at the end of yesterday and on which the moving averages, playing on the side of the bears, are now being held. Only the consolidation at this level with a reverse test from top to bottom can create a signal to open long positions in hopes of a recovery in the euro and the continuation of the upward trend that we observed at the end of last week. The closest target will be 1.1803. Its breakthrough with a similar consolidation creates another entry point for long positions, which will lead EUR/USD to new local levels: 1.1829 and 1.1856, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of weak data on the eurozone and a negative market reaction with longs, then it is best not to rush. You can open long positions if a false breakout is formed in the 1.1766 area. I advise you to buy EUR/USD immediately on a rebound only after the first test of the 1.1747 low, or even lower - from the level of 1.1675, counting on an upward rebound of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears have so far seized the initiative, but have not managed to seriously harm the upward trend. Given the low volatility of the market, the focus will be shifted to data on GDP in the eurozone. Weak indicators, which may not reach the forecasts of economists, will certainly lead to the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1783, which will provide an excellent entry point into short positions, in hopes of pulling down the price to the 1.1766 area. A breakthrough and test of this area from the bottom up will increase the pressure on the pair and open the way to the lows: 1.1747 and 1.1725, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears are not active around 1.1783 and we receive strong data for the eurozone this morning, then I advise you to open short positions only after a false breakout is formed in the area of the high of 1.1803. Selling EUR/USD immediately on a rebound is best only after the test of the new local resistance at 1.1829, or even higher - in the 1.1856 region, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points.

Indicator signals:

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Moving averages

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1766 will increase the pressure on the pair. Surpassing the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1783 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.