To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2059 and recommended that you decide on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened and what should have been done. The bears are trying to break below the level of 1.2059. However, the bulls quickly form a false breakout and take this area under their control, forming a signal to open long positions. As a result, there is an instant movement to the resistance area of 1.2091, which brings about 30 points of profit. To my regret, we fell just 1 point short of the designated level of 1.2091, and there was no false breakout, so I was forced to skip the reverse movement down.

Despite the large movement of the euro in the first half of the day, nothing has changed from a technical point of view, and the focus during the US session will be shifted to all the same levels. We need to pay attention to the data on the US labor market, which will be decisive at the end of this week. An excellent report above forecasts may support the euro. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2045 will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions, giving buyers confidence and allowing them to return to the high area of 1.2091. The breakthrough of this level will depend entirely on the data on the US labor market. A top-down test on the volume of the area of 1.2091 will form an additional entry point to long positions further along with the trend and open up an opportunity for growth in the area of 1.2118, where I recommend taking the profits. Suppose the pressure on the euro continues in the second half of the day after the release of statistical data, and the bulls miss the support of 1.2045. In that case, it is best to postpone long positions until the update of the minimum of 1.2025, or even lower, until the test of the lower border of the wide side channel 1.1988, from where you can buy the pair immediately for a rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The bears gave a good rebuff in the resistance area of 1.2091, which was transformed into 1.2088. The sellers of the euro now have the task of returning the support of 1.2045 under control. Only a decline below this level and a test of it from the reverse side from the bottom up form a fairly good signal to open short positions in contrast to yesterday's bull market with the main goal of reducing to the support area of 1.2025, where I recommend taking the profits. There are also moving averages that play on the side of buyers. Insufficient data on the US labor market may lead to the implementation of this scenario. A break of 1.2025 will lead to a larger movement of the euro down to the area of 1.1988, and all attempts of the bulls to reverse the market direction will end. In the scenario of repeated growth of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, do not rush to sell. It is best to wait for the next update of the maximum of 1.2088 and the formation of a false breakout, which forms the first entry point into short positions against the trend. If there is no activity of sellers at this level, the best option will be short positions for a rebound from the maximum of 1.2118, based on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 27 showed an increase in both short and long positions, but the latter turned out to be more, which led to an increase in the overall non-commercial position. It suggests that active purchases of the euro by the players continue, and you can bet on the further strengthening of the pair after a downward correction. The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates and monetary policy did not significantly affect the US dollar, as did the next programs proposed by US President Joe Biden to stimulate economic growth in the near future through changes in the tax system. Given that the Fed will continue to stick to the same course, even despite the sharp economic jump, it is likely that demand for risky assets will continue after the decline of the EUR/USD pair earlier this month. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions jumped sharply from 197,137 to the level of 200,415.

In contrast, short non-profit positions rose from 116,329 to the level of 119,448, indicating an influx of new buyers in the expectation of continued growth of the euro. The more the euro is adjusted downwards at the beginning of this month, the stronger the demand will be. As a result, the total non-profit net position rose sharply from the level of 80,808 to the level of 80,967. The weekly closing price continued its growth to 1.20795 from the level of 1.2042 a week earlier.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates that the market remains under the control of buyers.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of a downward correction, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2045 will act as support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.