To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. A weak report on retail sales in the UK limited the upward potential of the pound in the resistance area of 1.2855. According to the data, the volume of retail trade in October this year decreased by 0.1% compared to September. In the morning forecast, I talked about the upper limit of the side channel of 1.2855. Only a breakthrough of this resistance will lead to a more powerful growth of GBP/USD in the area of weekly highs 1.2884 and 1.2910, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of a decline in the pound after the data on the US labor market, only the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2823 will be a signal to open long positions. Otherwise, I recommend postponing purchases until the update of larger lows in the area of 1.2794 and 1.2769.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Weak retail sales in the UK allowed sellers of the pound to form an unsuccessful breakdown of resistance at 1.2855. In my morning review, I drew attention to this situation and recommended opening short positions. While trading will be conducted below this range, we can expect a decline in GBP/USD to the lower border of the side channel of 1.2823, but the more important task will be to break this range, which will increase the pressure on the pound and push it to the monthly support levels of 1.2794 and 1.2769, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the scenario of a breakdown and exit above the resistance of 1.2855, which may occur against the background of weak data on the US economy, or after positive news on the general election in the UK, it is best to consider new short positions on the update of the highs of 1.2884 and 1.2910.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is around the 30 and 50 daily averages, indicating some market uncertainty.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2823 will lead to a sell-off of the pound. The upward movement will be limited to the upper level of the indicator at 1.2855.

Description of indicators

• MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
• MA (moving average) 30 days – green
• MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
• Bollinger Bands 20