Analisis Forex & Kajian: 01.04.2024 - USD/JPY: trading scenarios on...

01.04.2024 02:47 PM

USD/JPY: trading scenarios on April 1

Despite the ongoing trend of the strengthening dollar, USD/JPY has remained within a narrow range near the 151.50 mark for the 8th consecutive trading day, fluctuating between the levels of 151.05 and 151.85. Investors are wary of possible currency intervention by the Japanese monetary authorities.

However, if the important macroeconomic data expected from the U.S. this week exceeds forecasts, indicating the strength of the American economy and labor market, then bulls, despite the threat of currency intervention, may attempt to break the recent local high of 151.86 and push USD/JPY to new record highs.

In this case, a breakthrough above the 151.50 mark may serve as the first signal for new long positions on USD/JPY, with the 151.86 level serving as confirmation.

Nevertheless, USD/JPY continues to trade in the bullish market zone, medium-term—above the key support level of 146.25 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and long-term—above the key support level of 130.70 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), which, from a technical standpoint, makes long positions preferable.

In an alternative scenario, a breakthrough of the important short-term support level of 151.05 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) may signal the beginning of a downward correction.

In the conditions of a stable bullish trend, the downward correction will most likely be limited by support levels at 150.30, 150.00, 149.88 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 149.40 (50 EMA on the daily chart).

Only a breakthrough of the key support level of 146.25 (200 EMA on the daily chart) could lead the price into the medium-term bearish market zone, making short positions preferable.

For now, the advantage remains with long positions.

Support levels: 151.05, 151.00, 150.30, 150.00, 149.88, 149.40, 149.00, 148.00, 147.45, 147.00, 146.25, 146.00, 145.20, 145.00

Resistance levels: 151.50, 151.85, 152.00, 153.00

Trading Scenarios

Main Scenario

Aggressive: Buy at the market, Buy Stop 151.90. Stop Loss 150.80

Moderate: Buy Stop 152.10. Stop Loss 150.90

Targets: 153.00, 154.00, 155.00

Alternative Scenario

Aggressive: Sell Stop 150.90. Stop Loss 151.60

Moderate: Sell Stop 150.20. Stop Loss 151.10

Targets: 150.00, 149.88, 149.40, 149.00, 148.00, 147.45, 147.00, 146.25, 146.00, 145.20, 145.00

"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but they can serve as a guide when planning and placing your trading positions.

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