Analisis Forex & Kajian: 13.09.2021 - Bitcoin and Ethereum:...

13.09.2021 03:55 PM

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Seasonal sale month

It is the second week of September, where many traders are frightened by such an intense downward movement. Alarmists predict the worst period for the cryptocurrency, and some media experts have again started talking about a possible downward trend that will reset the crypto market.

What scared the crypto hamsters so much?

On September 7, Bitcoin fell by as much as 18% (-$9500) in a few hours without any information hype. Following the first cryptocurrency, the entire remaining crypto market collapsed. Ethereum lost about 21%, and the remaining Altcoins lost 30%-50% of the value. Scary, but not the end.

To begin with, from late July to early September, Bitcoin grew by 74% and Ethereum by 120%. The market was overbought by such a quick change in the quotes. The collapse that occurred on September 7 is nothing more than profit-taking, which led to a technical uncontrollable correction.

But it is still too early for panic as the cryptocurrency market is still in an upward trend.

The natural basis of the past:

Looking up the statistics for 10 years, I saw a characteristic pattern associated with the first month of autumn. In 7 out of 10 cases, September is considered a bearish month, where there is a correction and mass profit-taking. Thus, what we observed on September 7 fits into the natural basis of the past.

Following the statistics, the bearish period will last until early October, where new growth in the crypto market is possible.

While pseudo-experts predict the collapse of the crypto market, the investment director of the most powerful financial fund in the world, BlackRock, explained his decision to buy Bitcoin.

Rick Rieder, in a comment on CNBC, called Bitcoin an alternative currency, the value of which depends on its distribution. Let me remind you that back in August, BlackRock disclosed positions for $382.96 million in mining firms listed on the Nasdaq Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain.

Such corrections, as now, have almost always been regarded by institutional investors as an opportunity to enter the market at a discount. Therefore, you should not be surprised if in October or November you hear, for example, from MicroStrategy, that they bought more BTC on their balance.

What is happening on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts?

After a sharp decline, the Bitcoin exchange rate almost immediately recovered by half, after which a long-term amplitude appeared in the range of $44,000/$47,500. In fact, the quotes are still in the correction stage, scaring new traders. This situation will change if the price is kept above the value of $48,000. In this case, a new upward turn may occur, which will, first of all, restore the quotes relative to the correction of September 7. After that, it will be focused on updating the local maximum of the upward trend.

If the bottom of the correction has not yet been found, then, probably, the sellers' finish will be the price area of $40,000/$41,500.

Ethereum completely repeated the Bitcoin cycles, where the values of $3,150/$3,550 are used as the boundaries of the amplitude movement. In order for a new round of growth in the volume of long positions to arise, the quotes must hold above the value of $3,600, which will open the way towards the psychological level of $4,000.

The maximum possible correction value considers the values of $2,500-$2,750.

The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market is at the level of 44 points, this is not an area of panic, but not a delight from the market. It is worth considering that during the collapse on September 7, the index fell from 79 points to 47 points, with a subsequent decline to 31 points. Now the index has recovered by 13 points and continues to grow.

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