Analisis Forex & Kajian: 27.04.2021 - Forecast for EUR/USD: US will...

27.04.2021 08:09 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD: US will raise tax on wealthy Americans. Euro has no plans of going down.

The statements made by the Biden administration clearly indicates their serious intention to adjust US taxes.

One section of the new tax reform is about a change in taxation on capital gains, which will affect taxpayers who earn more than $ 1 million a year, said Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council.

And this Wednesday, US President Joe Biden will detail his new program called "The American Jobs Plan". It includes new plans on social spending, and the hike in taxes will be the one to finance it. However, it is still unclear for whom the $ 1 million income threshold is specifically intended - for individuals or for households. What is certain though is that it will affect only 0.3% of the total number of taxpayers.

In any case, Democrats are confident that the reform, which is mainly aimed at the wealthy, will help establish fair order in the tax code itself, not to mention the benefits they will bring to the country's economy.

The capital gains tax rate is expected to increase to 39.6%, which means that combined with the existing tax on investment income, the federal tax rates for wealthy investors could be as high as 43.4%, provided that a 3.8% investment income is maintained

But Republicans have criticized this and declared it very detrimental to the economy, pointing out that it could lower investment.

Other changes that the reform brings are:

increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%;
removal of tax incentives of many private-owned companies;
increase of income tax rate of individuals earning more than $ 400,000; and
expansion of the inheritance tax

On a different note, the Biden administration is also busy preparing to export about 60 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine to other countries in need of more active vaccination. It is not yet known where exactly these will go, but the FDA has already made a statement that a full test is required before the supply is shipped to other countries.

Meanwhile, the EU is filing a lawsuit against AstraZeneca due to the delay in vaccine deliveries. According to official EU statements, the company failed to meet some of the terms of its contact, not having a reliable strategy to ensure timely delivery of doses.

With regards to macro statistics, the US Department of Commerce reported that new orders for durable goods rose much less than expected. It jumped by only 0.5% this March instead of the expected 2.5%. Most likely, this is partly due to the continued decline in transport equipment orders, which fell 1.7%. But even if we exclude this section, orders still increased by only 1.6%.

As for the currency market, 1.2090 is still the key level in EUR / USD as a break below it will certainly continue the downward pressure on the euro. And since the Fed will begin its two-day meeting today, dollar demand should increase, which will lead to a further decline in EUR / USD towards 1.2045. Going beyond it will drop the price even lower, plausibly towards the 20th figure, for which a very fierce struggle will unfold. But if bullish traders manage to bring the euro back to 1.2090, then the price can climb up to 1.2135 and 1.2180.

For the GBP / USD pair, a lot will depend on 1.3890 as a break above it will lead to a larger jump towards the 40th figure. But if bearish traders manage to push the price below the level, the pound will collapse to 1.3835 and 1.3790.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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