Analisis Forex & Kajian: 12.04.2021 - Trading recommendations for...

12.04.2021 12:45 PM

Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 12, 2021

Last Friday's economic calendar was quite average in terms of statistical indicators, but some data could definitely interest many investors who consider the US dollar as an investment.

Here's the details for the economic calendar on April 9:

The United States released its Producer Price Index, which was another signal of an early inflation growth. Here, the producer prices rose from 2.8% to 4.2%, with a forecast of 3.8%.

From the viewpoint of fundamental analysis, the growth of the producer price index, as well as inflation, is a positive signal that leads to the growth of the national currency. However, fears that the growth will be rapid can lead to a change in the Fed's monetary policy, which scares investors.

Definition:

The Producer Price Index is prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor, which estimates the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production.

Analysis of trading charts from April 9:

Last Friday, the Euro currency (EUR/USD) tried to restore the downward interest in the market, but a stop was seen again within the variable pivot point of 1.1860. As a result, the price rebounded, as it already happened last April 7 and 8.

It is noteworthy that the quote allowed itself to make a sideways move in the second half of the week, which can be regarded by market participants as a stop in an upturn.

The market never executed the trading recommendation last April 9, since the quote failed to consolidate below the level of 1.1860.

In turn, the British currency (GBP/USD) continued to decline last Friday. As a result, the local low (1.3669) of March 25 was reached, which reflects the basis of the corrective move from the high of the medium-term trend.

The trading recommendation on April 9 was not executed, as the quote was not able to hold below the level of 1.3669 in the H4 time frame, thereby not confirming a signal to sell.

Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 12, 2021

Today, Europe will publish its data on the volume of retail sales, where the decline is forecast to slow down from -6.4% to -5.4%.

Definition:

Retail sales are published by the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), which analyzes changes in retail sales and is the main indicator of consumer spending. An increase in this indicator can lead to a strengthening of the national currency, while a decrease leads to a weakening.

EU 9:00 Universal time - European retail sales data

Looking at the trading chart of the EUR/USD pair, it shows that the quote is still within the range of 1.1860/1.1920, where there is a special attention paid to the lower border, since a sell signal may appear due to a slowdown in the upward movement.

If the price is kept below the level of 1.1860 in the H4 chart, the path towards the level of 1.1820-1.1765 will open.

Traders will consider an alternative scenario of the market development if the price fails to hold below the level of 1.1860, which will likely lead to the prolongation of correction in the current range of 1.1860/1.1920.

As for the trading chart of GBP/USD pair, it can be seen that the local low of 1.3669 was reached again, where a rebound immediately occurred. The natural basis associated with this level leads to a reduction in the volume of short positions, but the desire of sellers to break through this level still takes place in the market.

If the price holds below the level of 1.3669 in the H4 chart, it will lead to a prolongation of the correction course from the high of the mid-term trend towards the range of 1.3600-1.3550.

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