Analisis Forex & Kajian: 23.11.2020 - Trading recommendations of...

23.11.2020 10:35 AM

Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD pair on 11/23/20

Past review for EUR/USD pair

The price of the euro slightly weakened last Friday. Market participants felt low activity, and only speculators managed to locally show activity during the first half of the European session.

There is nothing worth considering in terms of economic background. Statistical data for Europe and the United States were not published, and traders had to follow the rules of technical analysis only.

What happened on the trading chart?

The quote was under pressure from the natural basis of the level of 1.1890, where market participants reached a resistance point again, which led to a decline in the volume of buy positions and, as a result, to a reversal of the quote.

Such a development was already expected, therefore, it was suggested in the previous analytical review to closely monitor sell positions, which successfully brought us profit by 25 pips.

Past review for GBP/USD

The pound conditionally stood in one place last Friday, showing so low activity that even speculators could not take part in such insufficient price fluctuation.

What was published on the economic calendar?

UK's data on retail sales was published during the first half of the European session, where it rose from 4.6% to 5.8 %, instead of slowing down from 4.7% to 4.2%.

The market was so surprised that it initially reacted by weakening the pound sterling, but after some realization, the quotes returned to its original levels before the decline. This process was highlighted on the trading chart as a red and green ellipse.

What happened on the trading chart?

There was a local fluctuation of the quote with an amplitude of 1.3286 ---> 1.3250, after which the concentration of long positions (buy positions) led to the quote's retention to 1.3290, where the main level of 1.3300 was located near this area. In this case, it did not put pressure on buyers.

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD pair

Considering the economic calendar, Europe's preliminary data on the index of business activity will be published, where the manufacturing sector is expected to slow down from 54.8 to 53.6. Meanwhile, things are not better in the service sector. A decline is expected from 46.9 to 42.5%. Therefore, the PMI may locally affect the value of the Euro in the period of weakening.

EU 9:00 UTC+00 - Manufacturing PMI for November (Preliminary)
EU 9:00 UTC+00 - Index of business activity in the services sector for November (Preliminary)

A similar index will be published in the United States in the afternoon, where the manufacturing sector index is forecasted to decline from 53.4 to 52.9. A decline in the US service sector is also considered, that is, from 56.9 to 54.5. The data is not the best, therefore, the US dollar may come under local pressure in terms of weakening its value during the time of publication.

USA 14:45 Universal time - Business activity in the services sector for November (Preliminary)
USA 14:45 Universal time - Manufacturing PMI for November (Preliminary)

In terms of technical analysis, you can see that the quote of EUR/USD is still below the level of 1.1890, which means that sellers still have a chance to decline towards 1.1850 again.

For the most impressive price change, the quote needs to be consolidated below the level of 1.1850, which will open the way towards the values of 1.1800/1.1810.

An alternative scenario will be considered if buyers manage to overcome the fear of a price rebound from the level of 1.1890 area and consolidate above it.

Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair

For the economic calendar, we have PMI's preliminary data in the UK today, where the index in the manufacturing sector will likely decline from 53.7 to 50.5, while a decline from 51.4 to 42.5 is likely to be recorded in the service sector. These statistical data may locally put pressure on the pound in terms of weakening.

UK 9:30 UTC+00 - Service PMI for November (Preliminary)
UK 9:30 UTC+00 - Manufacturing PMI for November (Preliminary)

A similar index of business activity will be published in the US this afternoon, where the index growth is not expected.

From a technical viewpoint, it is worth noting that the resistance level of 1.3300 was successfully broken due to the price growth, which led to an increase in the volume of buy positions. If the price kept its position above the level of 1.3300, there will be high chances of a further growth towards the local high (1.3480) from September 1.

An alternative scenario will be considered in case the quotes return below the level of 1.3300 in the four-hour time frame.

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