Analisis Forex & Kajian: 05.08.2019 - EURUSD: The demand for the...

05.08.2019 11:19 AM

EURUSD: The demand for the euro will slow down, but the bulls have a chance. The mood of Americans has increased

The euro continued its growth against the US dollar after the expected weak report on the US labor market, where the unemployment rate remained unchanged, although it was predicted to further decline and the number of jobs coincided with the forecasts of economists.

However, to say that the situation in the US labor market has changed seriously – of course, it will be wrong. According to the US Department of Labor, US employers in July this year continued to create new jobs, though not as stable as before. The report indicates that the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by 164,000, and the unemployment rate was 3.7%. Economists had forecast job growth of 165,000 in July and unemployment at 3.6%.

This suggests that, in general, the labor market continues to be in good shape, providing support to the economy. It is important to note the changes in the wages of Americans, which increased by 3.2% compared to July 2018.

Data on the US foreign trade deficit put pressure on the US dollar.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the foreign trade deficit of the United States for the first half of the year increased by 7.9% compared to the same period of the previous year and amounted to $316.33 billion. However, if we take into account the data compared to May, in June this year, the foreign trade deficit decreased by 0.3% and amounted to $55.15 billion. Imports fell by 1.7% to $261.45 billion, while exports fell by 2.1 percent to $206.3 billion.

The report shows that China has lost its position as the main trading partner of the United States due to a reduction in imports and exports on the background of trade duties imposed. Thus, imports to the US from China for half a year fell by 12% compared to the same period of the previous year, and exports decreased by 18%. According to the US Department of Commerce, the total volume of trade with China for six months amounted to 289.69 billion dollars. The fall in imports from China was more than offset by the growth of imports from other countries.

The report on the growth of production orders did not have much impact on the US dollar, even despite the fact that orders rose in June.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, production orders increased by 0.6% to $493.82 billion, while economists had forecast an increase of 0.8%. However, as before, the growth was strongly influenced by volatile categories. So, orders for non-defense aircrafts and spare parts rose by 75.1%, and orders for transportation equipment became the growth leader. Without this category, orders grew by only 0.1%.

Good growth rates of the American economy in the 2nd quarter of this year, albeit slightly worse than in the 1st, keep the mood of American households at a high level, even despite trade conflicts. According to the report, in July of this year, the final consumer sentiment index was 98.4 points against 98.2 points in June. Economists had expected the final index in July to be 98.5 points.

As noted at the University of Michigan, the growth is directly related to high confidence due to the increase in personal financial conditions, as well as due to a healthy labor market.

Data on the deterioration of conditions for doing business in New York did not greatly excites the markets at the end of last week. According to the report of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) of New York, the index of current conditions for doing business in July 2109 amounted to 43.5 points against 50.0 points in June. Let me remind you that the index values below 50 indicate a decrease in activity.

As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the further upward correction in risky assets will be clearly limited to the level of 1.1160, from which the euro continued its strong decline last week. If the bears push the pair below the support of 1.1110 at the beginning of the week, the pressure on the trading instrument is likely to increase, which will lead to an update of a larger area of 1.1070, where buyers will try to form the lower limit of a new upward channel capable of breaking above the maximum of 1.1160.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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