विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 24.09.2021

24.09.2021 09:16 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD: Euro boomed, but dollar is trying to catch up

Euro perked up on Thursday and recovered the losses it had amid hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. However, it still failed to climb above 1.1755 because business activity in the Euro area noticeably decreased in September, triggered by supply chain bottlenecks that have damaged both the service industry and manufacturers.

IHS Markit reported that growth in both sectors slowed much more than expected, which, in turn, brought overall activity to a five-month low and production costs to their highest level in 21 years. "Firms are increasingly suffering and frustrated by the challenges of supply delays, product and material shortages, and ever-increasing raw material prices," they said. "As a result, companies, primarily manufacturing but also service industries, are facing constraints, often losing sales and customers."

The numbers vary greatly from region to region, but growth especially slowed in Germany and France. Official data said composite PMI in France fell to a five-month low of 55.1 points in September, perhaps due to the upcoming winter. Manufacturing PMI also fell to an eight-month low of 55.2 points, while service PMI fell to 56.0 points. In Germany, manufacturing PMI decreased to 58.5 points, while service PMI fell to 55.3 points. Composite PMI, on the other hand, dropped to a four-month low of 56.0 points.

All this pushed composite PMI for the whole Euro area to 56.1 points, down from the 59.0 points last month.

In the US, the Department of Labor released a report on jobless claims yesterday, which indicated that first-time applications rose to 351,000 during the reporting week, up 16,000 from last week. This surprised economists as they expected the figure to fall to 320,000.

On the bright side, the leading economic index rose 0.9%, thanks to the improvements in eight out of ten US indicators.

With regards to EUR/USD, a lot depends on 1.1755 because climbing above it will provoke a further rise to 1.1780 and 1.1810. But if the bears manage to push the pair below the level, price will drop to 1720, and then to 1.1690. And if dollar becomes the market leader once again, the pair will decline to 1.1660 and 1.1620.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
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