Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY

The test of 148.75, coinciding with the downward movement of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that led to a price decrease of around 15 pips. Demand for dollar returned immediately after the movement.

Although data on bank lending volume came out and Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi gave a speech, no significant impact on the market exchange rate occurred. Everything clearly depends on market reaction to US data, for example, a move beyond the level of 149.35 will likely lead to further growth to 150. Such a scenario will prompt intervention by the Bank of Japan, as it wants to curb the weakness of yen.

For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 149.20 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 149.71. Growth will occur in continuation of the bull market, supported by strong inflation data in the US. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it.

Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 148.84, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.20 and 149.71.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 148.84 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 148.21. Pressure will return. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.

Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.20, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 148.84 and 148.21.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.