Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair was more fortunate on Friday than the EUR/USD pair. The British pound managed to surpass the 1.2680 level. However, by the end of the trading day, the quotes returned to this level, but now, a rebound from above allows us to expect a new rise in the British pound. It's worth noting that any upward movement at this time is classified as a correction. For example, there were practically no reasons for the British currency to rise last week.

Nonetheless, the pair grew almost the entire week, suggesting purely technical reasons for the pound's rise. The market began partially taking profits on previously opened short positions, but the outlook remains bearish. Everyone knows that after a correction, a new trend cycle begins. This week, of course, there's no guarantee we'll see significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar, as much will depend on U.S. data.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, there was one trading signal that was neither very precise nor convincing. The price rebounded from the 1.2680–1.2695 area. Beginners had grounds to open long positions, but the signal appeared late. In any case, if you opened a trade, it would have yielded a profit.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to lean toward a decline. We fully support the pound's fall in the medium term, believing it to be the only logical scenario. The pound sterling is still undergoing a correction, which may take some time. However, it's essential to remember that the current growth of the British currency is purely technically driven.

On Monday, novice traders might anticipate a new rise in the British pound if the price rebounds from the 1.2680–1.2685 area.

On the 5-minute timeframe, you can now trade using the following levels: 1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502–1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2754, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993. On Monday, the UK will release the second estimate of the November Manufacturing PMI, while the U.S. will publish the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Naturally, the ISM index is far more significant for the market.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The strength of a signal is measured by the time it takes to form (a rebound or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: Pairs may generate numerous false signals or none during a flat market. Stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session. Close all trades manually afterward.
5. MACD Signals: Trade MACD signals on the hourly timeframe only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by trendlines or channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance area.
7. Stop Loss: Place a Stop Loss at breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the intended direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: Target levels for opening or closing positions. Take Profit orders can also be set here.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line that serve as supplementary trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can strongly influence price movements. During their release, trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend.

Forex beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are critical for long-term success in trading.