Overview of macroeconomic reports

Several macroeconomic events are set on Thursday, but all of them will be overshadowed by the Bank of England's meeting, which we will discuss below. The EU will release its Services PMI for July. However, this will be the second, final assessment, which usually does not differ from the first. Therefore, we do not expect significant reactions to this report. The UK will also release the final estimate of its Services PMI. The US will publish a similar index, but in addition to that, the ISM Business Activity Index will also be released, which is more important. The ISM index can have a real impact on the movement of both pairs, but it will be very difficult to determine whether the market is responding to the BoE meeting or the ISM index.

Overview of fundamental events

The main item on today's agenda will be the BoE meeting. Everything will matter decisively. This includes the interest rate decision, the voting distribution of the Monetary Policy Committee members, the accompanying statement, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's stance. Naturally, predicting all of this in advance is impossible, so traders will have to react to the situation as it unfolds. Even in this case, no one can guarantee a logical market movement. It is entirely possible that the market has already priced in a certain scenario. If this scenario materializes, the actual movement may be counterintuitive.

Bottom line

We recommend focusing on the US ISM index and the BoE meeting. Both of these events can have an impact on both currency pairs. The market reaction may be strong and even illogical.

Main rules of the trading system:

• The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce/drop or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
• If two or more trades were opened near a certain level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
• In a flat market, any currency pair can generate a lot of false signals or not generate them at all. But in any case, as soon as the first signs of a flat market are detected, it is better to stop trading.
• Trades are opened in the time interval between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American one when all trades must be closed manually.
• On the 30-minute timeframe, you can trade based on MACD signals only on the condition of good volatility and provided that a trend is confirmed by the trend line or a trend channel.
• If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

Comments on charts

Support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening long or short positions. Take Profit orders can be placed around them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading now.

The MACD (14,22,3) indicator, both histogram and signal line, is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with utmost caution or to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.