Analysis of Monday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair showed almost perfect movements on Monday. As we expected the day before, the rebound from the level of 1.0749 led to the fact that quotes resumed to fall. Recall that on Friday the price also failed to overcome the level of 1.0749. Thus, the pair is getting closer and closer to forming a horizontal channel or flat. There was not a single important event or report either in America or in the European Union on Monday. Therefore, novice traders had nothing to pay attention to during the day. Nevertheless, volatility was higher than on Friday, when, we recall, the most important statistics in the US were published. From the low to the high of the day, the pair moved about 70 points. So now neither bulls or bears have an advantage. There is no trend at this time either, because the pair has spent the last five trading days between the levels of 1.0636 and 1.0749. Therefore, now we can expect a fall to the level of 1.0636, and further growth can be expected not earlier than when the price settles above the level of 1.0749.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture also looks pretty good on the 5-minute timeframe. The first sell signal turned out to be almost perfect in terms of accuracy. The price rebounded from the level of 1.0749, after which it dropped to the level of 1.0697, from which it also bounced perfectly. Naturally, this signal should have been worked out with a short position and it was possible to earn about 40 points on it. Unfortunately, the second buy signal turned out to be false. The price failed to go up after it formed 15 points, which would be enough to place Stop Loss at breakeven. As a result, the long position closed at a loss of about 20 points. The last sell signal also turned out to be false, but it should not have been worked out, since it was formed too late in time. As a result, novice traders could end the day with minimal profit.
How to trade on Tuesday:
The ascending trendline is no longer relevant on the 30-minute timeframe and there is no trend right now. Most of all, the movement looks like a flat between the levels of 1.0636 and 1.0749. So now we can expect a fall to the lower boundary of this horizontal channel. The European Central Bank meeting will take place this week, but its results are unlikely to be so important that the pair will leave the horizontal channel. More hopes for US inflation on Wednesday. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0607, 1.0636, 1.0663, 1.0697, 1.0749, 1.0787-1.0806, 1.0837. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. Neither the European Union nor the United States scheduled any important events or reports. Therefore, during the day, novice traders will again have nothing to react to. However, the volatility can be quite high again (60-70 points) and the intraday trend (on the 5-minute timeframe) can lead to good trading signals.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
