Analysis of trades and trading advice on the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.2648 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upwards from the zero mark, which limited further upward potential—especially after yesterday's failure to break the weekly minimum. A second test of this price shortly thereafter led to the implementation of scenario #2 for selling, as I detailed in my morning forecast. This resulted in a drop in the pound by only 8 points, after which trading returned to around 1.2648. For the second half of the day, I did not revise the levels, and in the case of weak data on initial jobless claims and GDP for the first quarter of this year in the US, we can expect scenario #1 to play out for buying from 1.2648, which is being realized at the time of writing this article. Additionally, figures on changes in durable goods orders, trade balance in goods, and pending home sales will also be released. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Signal for Buying

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point around 1.2648 is reached (green line on the chart), aiming for an increase towards 1.2680 (thicker green line). At around 1.2680, I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expectations for pound growth today rely on weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive price tests at 1.2633, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal upward in the market. Expectations include an increase towards the opposite levels of 1.2648 and 1.2680.

Signal for Selling

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after it updates to the level of 1.2633 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2605. I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will emerge after strong US data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive price tests at 1.2648, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward in the market. Expectations include a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.2633 and 1.2605.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line – entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line – target price where you can place Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line – target price where you can place Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not using money management and trading large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the example above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.