Global macro analysis for 12/07/2016:

The UK Retail Sales data published after the Brexit showed that the country is starting to struggle after this historical decision. The British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor that provides an overview of the retail industry performance plunged 0.5% in the 12 months through June following a 0.5% expansion the previous month. This kind of data might suggest that British consumers might have started to tighten the belt due to uncertain economic outlook.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. Bulls are trying to rally, but so far they have managed to get to the nearest resistance at the level of 1.3116 and the rally was capped by 55 moving average. The outlook is still bearish, but the corrective occasional rally upward might provide excellent opportunity to open short positions.