विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 02.03.2026 - Geopolitics ruling markets. Trader's calendar on March 2-4

02.03.2026 10:07 AM

Geopolitics ruling markets. Trader's calendar on March 2-4

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The start of a US military operation against Iran, backed by statements from President Donald Trump, were the main geopolitical shock of the weekend. According to official sources and operational summaries, Washington has launched actions aimed at regime change in Tehran. At the same time, several reports referred to "preemptive strikes" by Israel on Iranian targets. In response, strikes hit US military facilities in several countries across the region — from the UAE and Bahrain to Kuwait and Qatar. Iranian forces also published navigational directives for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The operation began just two days after another round of talks between Iranian and US delegations in Switzerland. Reports suggest that disappointment with the outcome of those meetings was one of the causes of the sudden escalation. The semi?official Mehr agency reported an explosion on Kharg Island — the site of a key export terminal — immediately heightening fears of potential disruptions to oil supplies. At the same time, The Economist and other analytical outlets warned that the risk for the Trump administration is that the operation could become a protracted, poorly defined campaign — similar to ones the US has already been drawn into in the Middle East.

Markets reacted quickly, but selectively

Oil and gold prices rose. Investors typically hedge risks and seek protection in commodity and precious?metal assets amid the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade and escalating military activity. Cryptocurrencies also showed volatility, sensitive both to geopolitical risk and to overall liquidity flows. Stock indices, at least initially, demonstrated relative resilience. Investors are rotating portfolios, but a mass sell?off of global risk assets has not occurred — at least not yet.

For businesses and traders, the scenario is unpredictable. Military operations always have long?term side effects:

direct strikes on infrastructure and logistics
increased political instability
higher insurance and logistics costs
higher risk premia

Taken together, these factors affect corporate plans and investment decisions. The most vulnerable sectors remain those dependent on stable energy supplies and international logistics chains:

oil & gas
shipping
metals

The politics remains the key factor for assessing future developments. Statements about the operation's time frame — "roughly four weeks" — only add to the uncertainty. Short-term protection via commodity and defensive assets looks logical, but strategic decisions on equity and debt positioning should take into account two scenarios: a rapid diplomatic de-escalation or a drawn-out campaign with lasting consequences for global trade and energy. In conditions of high uncertainty, the guiding principles are liquidity, flexibility, and readiness to quickly rebalance portfolios in response to operational and diplomatic developments.

Will oil open March with a gap?

Many experts link the timing of the strikes to the fact that, on a normal trading day, oil's reaction might momentarily exceed $100 per barrel. It is possible that Monday, March 2, could open with a large gap. Reuters reports unprecedented reactions from the shipping industry to the escalation in the Persian Gulf. MarineTraffic data show hundreds of vessels have dropped anchor in the Strait of Hormuz area — not only oil and LNG tankers but dozens of container ships as well. Around 150 tankers are positioned outside the strait on the open sea side, and many other vessels are blocking passage from the inner side of the strait.

Similar mass anchorages have been recorded within the exclusive economic zones of coastal states in the region — Kuwait, the UAE and others. In these conditions, ship owners and major trading houses have temporarily suspended transits through the strait, awaiting clarification and reduced risk. The intensity of the attacks has already caused real incidents: reports say the oil tanker Skylight was damaged by a missile strike and began to sink. Al Jazeera also reported a fire aboard another vessel — the MKD Voyager. These events increased concerns about the safety of this key sea lane: roughly one?fifth of the world's seaborne oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

This includes exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran, and a significant share of Qatar's liquefied natural gas. Accordingly, any prolonged disruptions to pumping or vessel transit immediately affect assessments of global energy supply availability. International maritime services and analysts warn of consequences. The US?run Joint Maritime Information Center notes:

increased naval presence
expected congestion in anchorage zones
rising VHF?band challenges
spikes in insurance?market volatility

Practically, this means a sharp rise in war?risk and piracy insurance premiums, delivery delays and higher logistics costs — factors that quickly create inflationary effects for consumers and industry. Consulting firm Rystad Energy, in its review, allows for a scenario in which Brent rises by $20 per barrel as early as March 2 if the blockade persists and roughly 15 million barrels per day of flows through Hormuz are disrupted. This estimate is, of course, highly sensitive to the length of the closure and the effectiveness of rerouting.

OPEC+ is already holding internal discussions that could include a larger increase in output to offset potential disruptions. The alliance will have to balance supporting prices against stabilizing supplies. In practice that will mean weighing political willingness to assist markets against the technical capacity of producing countries to ramp up output quickly. Although global supply generally exceeds demand, a series of local failures (from attacks on specific facilities to sanctions and logistical constraints) has eroded surplus availability.

Moreover, a significant share of that "excess" oil is under sanctions or stored in strategic reserves — notably China's — which limits the market's operational liquidity in a crisis. For market participants and importers, the consequences are clear:

greater volatility in energy prices
higher cargo insurance costs
rerouting of shipping flows with longer transit times and higher expenses

If the strait's blockade continues, importers will be forced to renegotiate contracts and seek alternatives, which will further increase inflationary pressure in energy-consuming countries.

If diplomacy or military de?escalation restores transit, the market could recover some lost volumes, and prices could pull back — but such corrections are usually accompanied by heightened volatility and a prolonged re?pricing of risk. Recent events in the Middle East have forced analysts and portfolio managers to reassess the economic consequences of the escalation. In a Bloomberg commentary, several experts link the rise in geopolitical risk primarily to the oil channel. If higher oil prices prove persistent, that could trigger a short-term spike in inflation expectations and, as a consequence, increase pressure on equity markets.

Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab notes that a sustained rise in energy prices would create an "inflation scare" that could sharply worsen market sentiment and reduce risk appetite. Francis Tan at Indosuez Wealth Management predicts an immediate reaction in Asia that would then spill over into Europe and the US: "If Brent crosses $100 per barrel, a risk?off opening will lead to downside gaps and force a revision of expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026." This would be particularly painful for growth in the technology sector. Rajiv De Mello estimates that a prolonged escalation would hit emerging markets hardest, where oil makes up a significant share of import bills and directly affects inflation and current accounts.

Where to look for "safe haven" now?

Against this backdrop, demand for safe havens has revived strongly. US Treasuries have resumed their role as a defensive asset. The $30 trillion Treasury market again demonstrated its safe?haven function: in February, government bonds delivered notable returns for investors (about 1.5% for the month — the best monthly result since last February), and long?dated paper is up roughly 4% since the start of the observation period. According to EPFR, roughly $16.3 billion of net inflows went into government bonds in the first two months of the year, confirming renewed demand for safe instruments amid uncertainty.

Portfolio managers explain this by a combination of factors:

geopolitical risk
concerns about debt and credit segments
volatility driven by debates over AI's impact on economic growth

"Treasuries will remain an attractive refuge," summarizes James Etay of Marlborough. Regional specifics also matter: purchases of Japanese government bonds are especially notable. Foreign investors increased their holdings in February, one of the largest monthly buy programs on record, according to local registries. This is part of a broader picture in which major sovereign markets serve as redistribution points for global risk. Even with these flows, experts remain cautious.

Rising oil prices have softened the profile of the global supply surplus, but supply still generally exceeds demand. Future fuel dynamics will largely depend on how long transit routes remain closed and how effectively OPEC+ can ramp up output to offset disruptions. Moreover, if the escalation triggers a sustained rise in inflationary expectations, it will complicate central banks' tasks and could delay or alter the pace of expected monetary easing.

Accelerating technological shifts and rising geopolitical tensions have increased market uncertainty, reflected in renewed volatility spikes. The active deployment of AI tools raises questions about profit structure and pricing power across whole sectors, which has repeatedly translated into sharp S&P 500 moves — single?session declines exceeding 1.6% have become common recently. Additional pressure comes from the situation in the Middle East and growing worries about the roughly $1.8 trillion private?credit segment — all factors forcing investors to reassess portfolio risk profiles.

In these conditions, Treasuries have returned to focus as a defensive asset. Although yields have already reacted to the news flow, paper remains within the range seen since September:

2?year notes trade in the 3.4–3.6% corridor
10?year notes sit near the lower boundary around 4%

The economic calendar will be the key trigger in the coming days. Employment reports can redefine expectations for Fed policy and quickly change market sentiment. Traders currently see little chance of a March cut; nevertheless, the market still prices in at least two cuts by year-end. The outlook will be especially relevant once Kevin Warsh formally assumes the Fed chairmanship. Trade policy in the US is undergoing a notable rebalance: after the Supreme Court decision that limited the use of IEEPA for mass tariff imposition, the administration quickly switched to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, introducing a temporary global rate of 10% while leaving open the option to raise it to 15%.

At first glance, this looks like a retention of the "pressure toolkit," but on closer inspection, the new model significantly softens the potential blow to global trade. The practical effect is twofold:

On the one hand, the administration retains a short?term pressure instrument — the 150?day Section 122 regime allows rapid implementation of measures and, at the same time, encourages partners to negotiate.
On the other hand, a broad set of exemptions reduces the likelihood of large?scale supply?chain disruptions and minimizes the direct inflationary impact on US consumer and producer prices.

As a result, the new tariff architecture appears to be a more targeted and procedurally constrained alternative to the previous, much more arbitrary practice. You cannot assume an automatic and immediate easing of monetary policy, but the shift in tariff regime reduces the chance that trade measures will become a driver of a new round of inflation.

2 March

2 March, 01:00 / Australia / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 52.3 / forecast: 51.5 / AUD/USD – down

Australia's PMI was 52.3 in January, indicating continued expansion in the sector. In February, the index faced pressure from slower growth in new orders and a modest drop in production; exports provided only limited support and did not offset weak domestic demand. Input?cost inflation accelerated, firms raised selling prices, and employment growth slowed to a four?month low, squeezing margins. If February comes in near the 51.5 forecast, it will signal weakening momentum in manufacturing and weigh on the Australian dollar.

2 March, 03:30 / Japan / S&P Global Manufacturing Business Activity Index / prev.: 50.0 / actual: 51.5 / forecast: 52.8 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's PMI was 51.5 in January and showed a recovery in production and orders. The February forecast assumes further strengthening to 52.8 on the back of solid domestic demand and a rebound in export shipments, including semiconductor orders. Companies do note rising input costs, which puts pressure on margins, though overall sentiment remains upbeat. If the forecast is confirmed, the yen could strengthen.

2 March, 04:30 / Australia / ANZ?Indeed Job Ads, February / prev.: -0.8% / actual: 4.4% / forecast: -2.3% / AUD/USD – down

Job ads on the ANZ?Indeed platform rose 4.4% in December after a revised fall in November, indicating a temporary pickup in labour demand in retail and services. The report shows labour?market tightness remains above pre?pandemic levels. The forecast for February calls for a decline. If job postings fall to the projected -2.3%, that would weaken employment prospects and be negative for the Australian dollar.

2 March, 08:30 / Australia / Commodity Prices Index, February / prev.: -3.2% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 1.2% / AUD/USD – down

In January the commodity prices index recovered to 2.6%, supported by gains in:

gold
lithium
agricultural products
Iron ore and coal remained weak. The monthly rise was significant, pointing to short?term commodity market volatility. The forecast for February assumes a slowdown in the pace of gains, which would also weigh on the Australian dollar.

2 March, 09:00 / Russia / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI / prev.: 48.1 / actual: 49.4 / forecast: 49.6 / USD/RUB – down

Russia's PMI rose to 49.4 in January from 48.1 in December, reflecting the mildest contraction in months and partial stabilisation of output.

New orders fell only modestly.
Export sales showed weakness.
Employment continued to decline.
Firms reported higher input costs after a VAT increase.

Under these conditions, a February reading near 49.6 would indicate further stabilisation in business activity and support the ruble.

In January, the Nationwide index showed annual house?price growth of 1.0% after 0.6% in December, reflecting a demand pickup as mortgage rates eased and affordability improved. Regional divergences persist:

London prices are rising faster
Northern Ireland is weakening

The February forecast points to a more moderate acceleration to 0.7%, which should support sterling.

2 March, 10:00 / Germany / Retail Sales, January / prev.: 1.3% / actual: 1.5% / forecast: 1.9% / EUR/USD – up

German retail sales rose 1.5% in December, exceeding long?run averages and signalling some recovery in consumer demand. Data suggest shoppers were active during sales and in certain segments. The January forecast expects further acceleration; confirmation would support the euro.

2 March, 11:55 / Germany / HCOB Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 47.0 / actual: 49.1 / forecast: 50.7 / EUR/USD – up

Preliminary HCOB data show the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in February, marking a move into expansion after a prolonged downturn. Production and new orders grew strongly despite employment declines. Firms reported higher input costs and a modest rise in selling prices. If the February reading hits the forecasted expansion zone (50.7), it will be positive for the euro.

2 March, 12:00 / Euro area / HCOB Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 48.8 / actual: 49.5 / forecast: 50.8 / EUR/USD – up

The euro area's HCOB PMI was 49.5 in January, already signalling a recovery in output and incoming orders supported by export growth and firmer domestic demand. Firms continue to report rising input costs and limited employment momentum. The February forecast points to a move into expansion at 50.8, which would further support the euro.

2 March, 12:30 / UK / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 50.6 / actual: 51.8 / forecast: 52.0 / GBP/USD – up

The UK PMI was 51.8 in January:

production accelerated
export demand rose noticeably (especially to the US and EU) At the same time, companies continue to reduce inventories and employment, while rising input and selling prices pressure margins.

The February forecast foresees further acceleration, which would support sterling.

2 March, 17:30 / Canada / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 48.4 / actual: 48.6 / forecast: 50.4 / USD/CAD – down

Canada's PMI was 48.6 in January, signalling the end of a long contraction and early signs of production stabilisation. New orders fell less sharply than before, and some firms began modest hiring in anticipation of demand recovery, although input cost inflation increased. The February forecast would push the index into expansion (50.4). If confirmed, that would be supportive for the Canadian dollar.

2 March, 17:45 / US / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 51.8 / actual: 52.4 / forecast: 51.2 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

The US PMI was 52.4 in January, but the pace of improvement slowed:

new orders and hiring moderated
supplier delivery times lengthened.

These signals point to rising supply?chain pressure amid softer demand. The February forecast sees a dip to 51.2. If the result is close to the forecast, it would reduce industrial momentum and likely weigh on the dollar.

2 March, 18:00 / US / ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, February / prev.: 44.8 / actual: 48.1 / forecast: 48.0 / USDX – down

The ISM manufacturing employment index rose to 48.1 in January from 44.8 in December but remains below 50, indicating ongoing job losses in the sector. Over recent years, manufacturing payrolls have shown a persistent decline, with only a few industries adding staff. Firms continue to fire employees and leave vacancies unfilled as they take a cautious approach to hiring. If February's reading confirms the 48.0 forecast, it will be another negative for the dollar.

3 March

3 March, 02:50 / Japan / Private non?residential investment, Q4 / prev.: 7.6% / actual: 2.9% / forecast: 3.0% / USD/JPY – down

In Q3 2025, corporate capital spending rose 2.9% after a stronger earlier increase. Manufacturing investment slowed while non-manufacturing investment accelerated. Weaker outlays on equipment and ICT explain the slower overall growth despite stronger spending in real estate and services. The Q4 forecast assumes a recovery to 3.0%. If confirmed, that would support the yen.

3 March, 03:01 / UK / Retail prices, February / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 1.5% / forecast: 1.2% / GBP/USD – down

Retail inflation in the UK accelerated to 1.5% year?on?year in January, above expectations, reflecting higher seller costs and food price rises. Prices for fresh produce and goods sensitive to logistics and energy rose the most. The February forecast calls for a slowdown to 1.2%. A signal of easing price pressure in retail would weigh on the pound.

3 March, 03:30 / Australia / Building approvals, January / prev.: 20.2% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 2.8% / AUD/USD – up

Building approvals rose only 0.4% in December after a sharp spike in November, indicating a slowdown in construction activity. Improvements in some housing segments and a slowdown in apartment starts are mixed with demand uncertainty. The January forecast expects a return to firmer growth in approvals. Confirmation would signal a construction pickup and support the AUD.

3 March, 13:00 / Euro area / Consumer inflation, February / prev.: 2.0% / actual: 1.7% / forecast: 1.7% / EUR/USD – volatile

Euro area inflation eased to 1.7% in January from 2.0% in December — the lowest since September 2024 — mainly due to weaker energy and manufactured goods price growth. Food and some industrial goods inflation remained notable, while core inflation fell to 2.2%, reducing overall price pressure. The February forecast at 1.7% implies continued cooling, which would reduce uncertainty about ECB policy and could increase euro volatility.

3 March, 16:55 / US / RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (leading), March / prev.: 47.2 / actual: 48.8 / forecast: 50.1 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

The RCM/TIPP index rose to 48.8 in February. Six?month expectations and personal finance assessments improved, and confidence in economic policy increased. The optimism was driven by better personal finance views and more positive consumer?spending expectations. If March reaches the forecast, it would boost risk appetite and support the dollar via improved macro expectations.

4 March

4 March, 00:30 / US / Crude oil inventories (API) / prev.: -0.609 mln bbl / actual: 11.4 mln bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile

For the week ending 20 February, US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly rose by 11.4 million barrels, well above the recent small draw and market expectations. The report points to a temporary build-up in supply or a drop in refinery throughput. The sharp inventory inflow was accompanied by gains in gasoline and distillate stocks, increasing near?term supply/demand uncertainty.

4 March, 01:00 / Australia / Ai Group Manufacturing Activity Index, February / prev.: -18.3 / actual: -19.4 / forecast: -19.0 / AUD/USD – up

The Ai Group index remained in contraction, reflecting weak demand, rising costs and hiring difficulties in several industries. Some segments showed partial improvement. Manufacturers cite tariff effects, higher input prices and labour constraints, which weigh on investment and output. The February forecast anticipates a continuation of negative momentum near -19; a confirmed slight improvement would support the AUD.

4 March, 01:00 / Australia / S&P Global Services PMI, February / prev.: 51.1 / actual: 56.3 / forecast: 52.2 / AUD/USD – down

January's flash Services PMI showed very high activity around 56.3. February is expected to slow to 52.2, possibly due to weaker new order growth and softer client demand. Employment remained strong and even accelerated, while work?in?progress held steady. Suppliers signalled rising input costs and firms tightened pricing. If February meets the forecast, the AUD may see a short-term dip.

4 March, 03:30 / Australia / GDP growth, Q4 / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 0.6% / AUD/USD – up

Quarter?on?quarter GDP rose 0.4% in the previous quarter. The main contributors were construction investment and government spending, while household consumption weakened. The forecast for the next quarter assumes further gains in investment and exports. A confirmed 0.6% reading would support the country's macro outlook and the AUD.

4 March, 03:30 / Japan / S&P Global Services PMI, February / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 53.7 / forecast: 53.8 / USD/JPY – up

The services sector showed steady expansion in January with PMI around 53.7, driven by stronger new orders and solid domestic demand. Hiring remained positive, though slower, and suppliers reported rising selling prices. The February forecast of 53.8 implies further strengthening, which could bolster the yen.

4 March, 04:30 / China / Official Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 50.1 / actual: 49.3 / forecast: 49.1 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

The official PMI fell to 49.3 in the latest reading, signalling weak production dynamics and declines in new orders and employment. Commodity prices continue to rise, and selling prices are back to growth. The February forecast expects continued contraction at 49.1. Confirmation would pressure Brent and support the dollar versus the yuan.

4 March, 04:30 / China / Official Non?Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 50.2 / actual: 49.4 / forecast: 49.8 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down

China's official non?manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.4 in January from 50.2 in December, reflecting slower services activity after the holidays and weak consumer spending. New orders and exports fell, employment stayed low, and business sentiment turned cautious. Input cost pressure stabilised, and output price declines slowed. The February forecast points to a slight improvement to 49.8. Brent could rise, and the yuan may strengthen against the dollar on confirmation.

4 March, 04:45 / China / Markit Manufacturing PMI, February / prev.: 50.1 / actual: 50.3 / forecast: 50.0 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

Markit manufacturing PMI showed a small expansion to 50.3 in January, helped by rising new orders and the first employment uptick in three months. Firms raised purchases and output despite higher input costs from metals. Long?term optimism eased amid cost and external?risk concerns. The February forecast sits at a neutral 50.0. A move toward the contraction threshold would increase pressure on Brent and support the dollar versus the yuan.

4 March, 04:45 / China / Markit Services PMI, February / prev.: 52.0 / actual: 52.3 / forecast: 52.4 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down

The services sector remained resilient in January at 52.3, reflecting stronger demand and higher export sales. Companies increased hiring for the first time in months, and order books stayed positive. Respondents noted higher procurement and fuel costs, but overall demand supported revenue growth. A small rise to 52.4 in February would strengthen the consumer and services impulse, supporting Brent and the yuan.

4 March, 08:00 / Japan / Consumer Confidence Index, February / prev.: 37.2 / actual: 37.9 / forecast: 38.2 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's consumer confidence rose to 37.9 in January from 37.2 in December — the highest since April 2024 — supported by improved assessments of wealth, employment prospects and incomes. Willingness to make major purchases and improvements in components points to a gradual pickup in domestic demand, though overall confidence remains below previous highs. A February reading near 38.2 would support the yen.

4 March, 09:00 / Russia / S&P Global Services PMI, February / prev.: 52.3 / actual: 53.1 / forecast: 52.8 / USD/RUB – up

Russia's services PMI rose to 53.1 in January from 52.3 in December, indicating a clear acceleration in activity. New orders and hiring recovered alongside higher input and selling prices after tax changes. If February eases toward 52.8, that would allow the dollar to strengthen versus the ruble.

4 March, 11:55 / Germany / HCOB Services PMI, February / prev.: 52.7 / actual: 52.4 / forecast: 53.4 / EUR/USD – up HCOB services PMI was 52.4 in January. The improvement came with revenue and export growth, though employment fell and price pressures remained high. A February reading of 53.4 would bolster the case for the euro.

4 March, 12:00 / Euro area / HCOB Services PMI, February / prev.: 52.4 / actual: 51.6 / forecast: 51.8 / EUR/USD – up

The euro area HCOB services PMI was 51.6 in January, reflecting a moderate sector expansion after earlier weakness. Activity ticked up to a two?month high in February, but new order growth slowed, and employment gains stalled. Input cost pressure eased with slower commodity price growth and softer services selling price inflation. If February confirms 51.8, it would support the euro.

4 March, 12:30 / UK / S&P Global Services PMI, February / prev.: 51.4 / actual: 54.0 / forecast: 53.9 / GBP/USD – down

UK services PMI stayed high around 54 in January, marking a ten?month expansion driven by stronger domestic demand. New orders continued to rise, but firms noted higher labour costs and input cost pressure; companies pared back staff to boost productivity. The February forecast points to a slight dip to 53.9, which would weigh on the pound.

4 March, 13:00 / Euro area / Producer Prices, January / prev.: -1.4% / actual: -2.1% / forecast: -2.6% / EUR/USD – down

Euro area producer prices fell 2.1% year-on-year in December, reflecting ongoing declines in energy and some industrial goods prices. Ex-energy inflation was closer to zero, with energy components driving the overall move. The January forecast points to a deeper annual decline of -2.6%. If confirmed, that would add pressure on the euro.

4 March, 16:15 / US / Weekly private?sector payrolls (ADP) / prev.: 37k / actual: 22k / forecast: 45k / USDX – up

Private employers added about 22k jobs per week in January on average, well below recent levels and forecasts. Employment gains were uneven: health care contributed strongly, while professional & business services cut jobs. A slow hiring recovery signals firm caution amid weak demand. If weekly gains return toward the 45k forecast next report, that would strengthen labor market revival signals and support the dollar.

4 March, 17:30 / Canada / S&P Global Services PMI, February / prev.: 46.5 / actual: 45.8 / forecast: 46.0 / USD/CAD – down

Canada's services PMI fell to 45.8 in January, marking a third consecutive month of contraction and another drop in new orders. Export demand weakened amid trade frictions, and supplier price inflation pressured margins. Companies limited pass?through to customers. The February forecast of 46.0 would signal initial stabilisation; confirmation would help the CAD.

4 March, 17:45 / US / S&P Global Services PMI, February / prev.: 52.5 / actual: 52.7 / forecast: 52.3 / USDX – down

US services PMI stayed in expansion at 52.7 in January, though new orders and hiring slowed. Weak external orders and softer client demand limit hiring. Cost inflation remains a material issue. A slight dip to 52.3 in February would weigh on the dollar.

4 March, 18:00 / US / ISM Services PMI, February / prev.: 53.8 / actual: 53.8 / forecast: 54.0 / USDX – up

The ISM Services PMI held near 53.8 in January, showing steady sector expansion, though new orders and employment slowed, and supplier price pressure stayed high. The February forecast at 54.0 implies stronger activity, which would support the dollar.

4 March, 18:30 / US / Crude oil inventories (EIA) / prev.: -9.014 mln bbl / actual: 15.989 mln bbl / forecast: 4.787 mln bbl / Brent – up

US commercial crude stocks rose by 15.99 million barrels for the week to 20 February, far exceeding the recent small draw and market expectations. The sharp build points to a temporary supply excess and increases the risk of downward pressure on oil prices. With no consensus forecast, the print itself raises uncertainty; Brent may react higher in this environment.

4 March, 22:00 / US / Fed Beige Book / Fed funds rate – 3.75% / USDX – volatile

The Beige Book compiles qualitative reports from 12 Federal Reserve districts on local economic conditions and provides a sector-by-sector snapshot of activity and labour markets. Regional improvements usually boost risk appetite and can reduce dollar demand, while reports highlighting rising inflation risks prompt tighter policy expectations and support the dollar. The release often triggers short-term volatility as markets parse regional nuances and commentary.

2 March, 12:15 / Euro area / Speech by Frank Elderson, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD 2 March, 15:30 / Australia / Speech by Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), Reserve Bank of Australia / AUD/USD 2 March, 15:30 / UK / Speech by Alan Taylor, Member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD 2 March, 17:00 / Euro area / Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank / EUR/USD 2 March, 17:00 / Canada / Speech by Sharon Kozicki, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada / USD/CAD 2 March, 17:00 / Euro area / Speech by Joachim Nagel, ECB Governing Council / EUR/USD 2 March, 18:30 / UK / Speech by David Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking, Bank of England / GBP/USD 2 March, 18:40 / Euro area / Speech by Martin Kocher, ECB Governing Council, Governor of the OeNB (Austrian National Bank) / EUR/USD 2 March, 19:00 / Euro area / Speech by Olaf Sleipen, ECB Supervisory Board, Governor of the Dutch Central Bank / EUR/USD 2 March, 20:15 / US / Speech by Neel Kashkari, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis / USDX 3 March, 00:10 / Australia / Speech by Michele Bullock, Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia / AUD/USD 3 March, 07:00 / Japan / Speech by Kazuo Ueda, Governor, Bank of Japan / USD/JPY 3 March, 17:55 / US / Speech by John Williams, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York / USDX 3 March, 19:55 / US / Speech by Neel Kashkari, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis / USDX 4 March, 13:45 / Euro area / Speech by Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board / EUR/USD 4 March, 14:00 / Euro area / Speech by Patrick Montagner, ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD 4 March, 16:30 / Euro area / Speech by Luis de Guindos, ECB Vice?President / EUR/USD 4 March, 20:00 / Euro area / Speech by Burkhard Balz, Bundesbank / EUR/USD 4 March, 22:00 / US / Publication of the Fed's Beige Book / USDX

Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled on these days. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they can signal future policy intentions.