Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1837 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points before the pressure faded.

The euro reacted to news that inflation in Germany has slowed. However, this event had only a minimal impact on the euro's exchange rate. According to official statistics, Germany's Consumer Price Index increased by 2.1% year-over-year in January 2026, fully in line with analysts' expectations. Market participants had apparently already priced in these inflation figures, and the news release did not trigger significant volatility.

More interesting data lie ahead. The first event will be the release of preliminary weekly employment change data from Automatic Data Processing. Economists pay close attention to employment dynamics, as they are directly correlated with consumer activity and overall economic growth. This will be followed by the Empire Manufacturing Index data. Monitoring changes in this index can indicate upcoming trends in production orders, employment levels, and pricing in the manufacturing sector. Results exceeding forecasts may signal accelerating industrial activity, which would support the dollar against the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases can be considered upon reaching the 1.1851 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1879. At 1.1879, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1835 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward 1.1851 and 1.1879 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1835 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1806, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong U.S. data.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1851 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward 1.1835 and 1.1806 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.