Bitcoin "crossed" and bounced off the psychological mark of $29,000, the protection of which was a very important moment for determining the further upward potential of the market. For the third time in a row after the bitcoin crash in May, buyers manage to beat this level quickly enough, which indicates large static players in this range. Even despite all the negative news that is now entering the market, the bears, apparently, cannot cope with the local minimum of $29,000.
But before we talk about the technical picture of bitcoin, I would like to say a few words about the fact that yesterday the European Union proposed to introduce a ban on all anonymous transactions with cryptocurrency as part of a broad plan to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. Of course, it is interesting how they are going to ban something that, in fact, was created in order to keep the owners of wallets in the shadow. The EU plans to implement a number of proposals to strengthen the supervision of financial transactions, as well as to create a new supervisory body for 250 people, which will oversee risky financial institutions and their transactions. Here, most likely, we are talking about cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial organizations that are engaged in the purchase, sale, and exchange of cryptocurrencies. Apparently, in the near future, a ban on monetary transactions on such assets for €10,000 will be introduced.
According to the EU newsletter, it is planned to ban anonymous cryptocurrency wallets as well, as transactions carried out within the bitcoin blockchain must be governed by the same rules as regular bank transfers. "We shouldn't have other rules for the financial system. All existing rules should also apply to digital currencies," said EU Financial Services Commissioner Mairead McGuinness at a press conference.
It is expected that a new package of measures aimed, in fact, at actively combating bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, should soon be approved by the European Parliament and the Council of Europe. However, despite the proposals made, not everyone shares this approach, which can lead to a delay in the process. Therefore, the new body to combat money laundering is planned to be launched only in 2024.
No one doubts that money laundering poses a real threat to citizens, democratic institutions, and the financial system as a whole, however, it is unlikely that by disclosing information about the owners of cryptocurrency wallets it will be possible to achieve at least some reduction in crime. Fraudsters will go to other tokens and altcoins, internal transfers, in which they have even greater anonymity, which will only create additional difficulties in identifying criminal schemes.
Returning to the technical picture of bitcoin, I would like to talk about the index of fear and greed of investors in a nutshell, which dropped to the lowest level of 10 points in 2021. This suggests that speculators and non-professional traders are on the same path to wreak havoc with the next cryptocurrency market crash that many institutional investors have come to believe in this asset class. I think it is clear to everyone that faith in bitcoin alone is clearly not enough to buy it for millions of dollars, especially at such prices as now. The picture of 2018-2020 may well repeat itself, when bitcoin collapsed from its highs, floundered a little more, and then fell into the region of $3,000-$5,000, completely plunging the target audience into shock, counting on 100,000 "by the end of the year". It was at that moment that institutional players began to gradually enter, buying up their assets from speculators. And the reward for them was the growth of BTC in the region of 60,000 in the spring of this year.
So do not rush to discount your bitcoins from your accounts. If big players really need them, then you need them too. According to the latest data, the accumulation of cryptocurrency and its withdrawal from the exchanges continues, which is a bullish signal for the market.
According to the latest data from Glassnode, BTC reserves on centralized exchanges fell to April levels, when Bitcoin was above $60,000. Last time, during the growth phase, most of the BTC was bought by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and other institutional funds, which led to a constant net outflow of cryptocurrency from exchanges. But when a sharp decline began in May, speculators and investors quickly returned to the market and began to move coins en masse to exchanges for subsequent sale. This only accelerated the decline of the market in the future. Now, judging by the graph, investors have started accumulating the first cryptocurrency again.
As for the technical picture of bitcoin, its rebound from $29,000 is a good signal for the market. If we see a breakdown of $29,200 in the near future, it is unlikely that anything will stop bitcoin on the way to the test of the minimum at $25,700, and then the area of $21,600. Most likely, only there will we see the return of big players to the market and a set of regular positions. So far, there is no serious movement of bitcoin on cryptocurrency exchanges, which indicates the nerves of steel of investors. It will be possible to say that the situation has normalized only after BTC returns to the level of $32,400 and fixes above this range. Only after that, the upward correction will continue to the $36,000 area, and it will be possible to talk about a resistance test at $41,100.
