To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The volume of US retail trade, which grew in July, has turned out to be much worse than the forecasts of economists. This factor caused the pound to grow which then allowed the bulls to seize the initiative again, but it is still very early to talk about the resumption of the bull market. At the beginning of the week, buyers of the pound should try to avoid a breakout of the 1.3081 support, just below which the lower border of the current upward channel passes. A false breakout forming there will be the first signal to open long positions in anticipation of growth towards the high of 1.3139, where I recommend taking profits today. The 1.3181 resistance is still the long-term goal, but in order to reach it, buyers need to be more aggressive, and this requires good fundamental data. If there is no demand for the pound in the support area of 1.3081, it is best to postpone new long positions until the lower border of the current side channel is updated in the 1.3007 area in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers need to break below the support of 1.3081, consolidating below this level will be a good signal to open short positions in the hope of pulling down the pair to a low of 1.3007. A break in the support of 1.3081 will also lead to a break in the lower border of the current upward channel, which buyers of the pound have been trying to form since the middle of Friday last week. The bears still consider the low of 1.2916 as the long-term goal, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair recovers in the first half of the day, it is best not to rush with sales, and wait for the test of a large resistance of 1.3139, but you can open short positions from there only if a false breakout is formed. I recommend selling the pair immediately for a rebound only after updating the resistance of 1.3181 in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the uncertainty of the market with a further direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

Growth will be limited in the area of the upper border of the indicator 1.3125. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3081 area will increase the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.