To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, in my review for the second half of the day, I recommended opening short positions from the resistance of 1.0945, and paying attention to purchases only after updating the major support of 1.0895, which happened. The 5-minute chart clearly shows how buyers are trying to form a small upward correction after the test of the low of 1.0895, which continued during the Asian session. However, it is very early to talk about the return of buyers to the market. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for April 28 showed an increase in short positions, but also a decrease in long ones, indicating a desire to buy euros at current prices, as well as on the probability that the single currency will fall because of the crisis, which gradually erupted amid the coronavirus pandemic and the sharp reduction in macroeconomic indicators in the eurozone. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from 83,160 to 87,583, while long non-commercial positions decreased from 170,378 to 167,264. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position slightly decreased to 79,681, against 87,128, indicating a decrease in interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices. As for the intraday strategy, it will be determined by today's ruling of the German constitutional court on the legitimacy of the Bundesbank's participation in the European Central Bank's asset purchase program. If the bulls manage to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0895, it is likely that demand for the euro will return, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the highest area of 1.0945. However, a more important task will be the 1.0978 resistance test, where I recommend taking profits. If there is no activity at the 1.0895 level, it is best to postpone long positions until the decline to the larger support area of 1.0852, from where you can open long positions immediately for a rebound based on 25-30 points of correction within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD you need:

Bears will wait for the decision of the German court, and if it's not in favor of market expectations, it is likely that a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.0895 will quickly push the European currency to new lows in the area of 1.0852 and 1.0819, where I recommend taking profits. More persistent sellers will expect to test the lows of 1.0787 and 1.0755. In case EUR/USD grows in the first half of the day, I recommend paying attention to short positions only after forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0945, since data on eurozone producer prices, the release of which is planned during the European session, is unlikely to seriously affect the market. I recommend selling the euro immediately on a rebound only from the more significant highs of 1.0978 and 1.1013, but do not forget about the court decision, which can provoke more powerful purchases of EUR/USD, which will lead to a reversal of the downward correction and return the pair to a bullish trend.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bears to return to the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0875 increases pressure on the European currency. In case of an upward correction, the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.0945 will act as resistance.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
• Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
• The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.