The economic calendar last Friday had one of the most important events in terms of fundamental analysis – the US Department of Labor report. However, the market did not react.
Let's analyze what is the reason for this.
Here's the details of the economic calendar for April 2, 2021.
Let's start with the fact that the report came out extremely good. The unemployment rate in the US declined from 6.2% to 6.0%, while March employment data rose by 916 thousand against 468 thousand in the previous period. It is noteworthy that employment was expected to rise by 647 thousand, which is not bad, but the actual value showed a confident recovery in the American labor market.
Against such a positive news background, the US dollar should have just surged, but it did not. The price of the national currency only strengthened slightly, and the market continued to stagnate.
Such a reaction is related to the absence of key players in the market last Friday due to the celebration of Good Friday in Europe, Britain and the US.
Now, we understand the true reason for the divergence of an important economic event and a market where there was no volatility.
Analysis of trading charts from April 2
The dollar index (DXY) weakened by about 0.5% during a minor pullback from March 31 to April 2, which may well be considered a regrouping of trading forces before the next growth.
The upward cycle that occurred on the index in the period of January is still relevant in the market. The successive update of the local high confirmed this.
A new upward turn will appear after the high (93.07) from March 31 is updated, which will lead to the next upward move towards the main forecast of 94.00/94.50.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair, which conditionally stood in one place, still managed to show local activity last Friday during the publication of US economic data. However, the euro's volume only declined by 35 points.
In fact, the market indicated the direction, but did not show the proper activity.
The GBP/USD pair was even more restrained compared to its European counterpart. There was no speculation, and the quote was within narrow limits of 1.3815/1.3850.
Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 5
Today, the holiday continues in Europe and the United Kingdom, which will affect trade volumes in terms of their reduction.
Holiday - Easter Monday
In this case, all the expectations are in the United States, which may well move the quote from the dead end.
In terms of the publication of statistical data, we can pay attention to the index of business activity in the US service sector for March, where the forecasted growth is 55.3 points to 58.5 points.
The business activity index is considered an important indicator for the service sector in the US economy. The growth of the index leads to the strengthening of the national currency.
14:00 Universal time - Business activity in the US service sector
Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, it can be seen that the price is steadily declining, where the quote has already managed to break through last Friday's local high. If the bearish mood is maintained and the price holds below the level of 1.1740, we cannot rule out the movement towards the main pivot point of 1.1700.
As for the GBP/USD trading chart, it shows that speculators have already broken upwards the stagnation at 1.3815/1.3850. Therefore, we should not exclude that the upward interest may be a local manifestation due to a long stagnation in a narrow range.
The correctional movement from the high of the mid-term trend is still relevant among traders, where intentions to weaken the pound is likely this week.
