To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
The sharp Asian rally is associated with the weakness of the US dollar, as well as the significant rise in gold. But this does not apply to the fact that the situation in the UK economy has improved, and the problems with Brexit have gone somewhere. At the moment, the task of buyers of the pound is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.2863, which forms a fairly good signal to open long positions in the expectation of continuing the upward trend to the highs of 1.2906 and 1.2961, where I recommend taking profits. Given that important economic data for the UK is not published today, it is likely that the pound will continue to grow. However, more correct purchases will be made with a downward correction of GBP/USD to the support area of 1.2815 with the condition that a false breakout is formed there. I recommend opening long positions on the pound for a rebound around the low of 1.2763, which was a fairly large resistance level last week. But even a test of this support will not lead to a break in the bull market, which has been formed since the beginning of July.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Sellers are not in a hurry to return to the market yet, as you need to understand why the pound sharply grew during the Asian session. Forming a false breakout when trying to continue growth and break above the high of 1.2863 will be the first signal to open short positions against the trend. However, a more important task for the bears is to regain support for 1.2815. Consolidating below it will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to a downward correction to the area of the low of 1.2763, where I recommend taking profits. If sellers do not hasten to return to the market and miss the resistance of 1.2863 in the first half of the day, it is best to abandon short positions before updating the high of 1.2906 or sell GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from the resistance of 1.2961 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. The pressure on the pound will immediately return as soon as the Brexit talks start again.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bull market.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2790. You can buy the pound immediately on a rebound from the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2720.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
